Who'll Win the Australian Open Men's Final Sunday? Bet Carlos Alcaraz to Finish Novak Djokovic Quickly
History will be on the line in the Australian Open men’s final, as Carlos Alcaraz looks to become the youngest player ever to complete the men’s singles Career Grand Slam, while Novak Djokovic chases a record-setting 25th Grand Slam title. I offer my Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic prediction and best bet based on the betting odds which see Alcaraz as the -295 favorite at 74.68% implied odds.
The match begins at 3:30 a.m. ET from Melbourne, Australia on Sunday morning (ESPN).
🎾 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic prediction & best bet
Here are my best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic predictions for the Australian Open Final:
- Pick to win: Carlos Alcaraz (-295 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best bet: Under 38.5 games (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic odds: Australian Open
Latest Australian Open odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.
| Player | Odds to win | Probability | Payout ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -295 | 74.68% | $13.39 |
| Novak Djokovic | +240 | 29.41% | $34.00 |
🏆 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic expert pick to win on Sunday
Here's why I'm backing Carlos Alcaraz to win the Australian Open Final:
Carlos Alcaraz is coming off the longest semifinal match in Australian Open history (5 hours and 27 minutes). Though he battled severe cramps and a vomiting spell in the middle of the match, I trust no player more to overcome those physical setbacks going forward than Alcaraz.
Being the No. 1 seed, Alcaraz caught huge breaks early in the tournament by playing on the first day, which afforded him two days off twice in between matches. So while Djokovic is 10-0 in Australian Open finals, it is a daunting task to beat Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz in consecutive matches.
💰 Best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic bet
Here's my best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic bet:
Under 38.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Given that both semifinal matches went five sets, I expect the Over on the number of games to be played in the final will be the more popular wager. But Jannik Sinner could be considered rather unlucky to have converted just two of 18 break-point chances against Djokovic, and that paves the way for some lopsided sets with Alcaraz likely to be more opportunistic.
We are getting great value making this wager at FanDuel, as the standard O/U at DraftKings is 37.5, with the alternate Under of 38.5 juiced to -140 (a 58.33% implied probability). In addition, three of the last four matches between Alcaraz and Djokovic have been decided in straight sets.
🆚 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic stats & Australian Open history
Here's the head-to-head and Australian Open history for Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic:
| Carlos Alcaraz | Stat | Novak Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches won | 5 |
| 2 | Wins in straight sets | 2 |
| 14 | Sets won | 15 |
| 142 | Games won | 153 |
| 1 | Wins on hard surface | 3 |
Australian Open records & best finish:
- Carlos Alcaraz: 23-4, Quarterfinalist in 2023 and 2024
- Novak Djokovic: 105-10, 10-time champion
📈Odds movement
Latest Australian Open odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.
| Player | Odds to win | Probability | Payout ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -300 | 75% | $13.33 |
| Novak Djokovic | +250 | 28.57% | $35.00 |
Carlos Alcaraz is entering the 2026 Australian Open final as a heavy favorite with current odds of -300. The opening odds of -295 have gone slightly longer to -300.
Djokovic enters as a +250 underdog but has had success in his career against Alcaraz, leading the all-time series 5–4. He opened as a +240 underdog, and has moved to a +250.
📺 How to watch Australian Open Final
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 1
- Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Melbourne, Australia
- How to watch: ESPN
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