⚾ Yankees vs. Royals Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 27)

The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are opposite in nearly every sense, leading to the slanted nature of the Yankees vs. Royals win probability.

The Royals have dropped six of their last eight games, and they've averaged a mere 1.5 runs across the defeats during that stretch.

Meanwhile, the Yankees sit fourth in runs, first in homers, and second in OPS, and Gerrit Cole is back. All of that has translated to the Yankees being the 60% favorites to earn a sweep at Kauffman Stadium at 7:40 p.m. ET tonight (Prime Video).

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Royals? Live MLB win probability

There was a brief dip in this market, with the Yankees falling from 57% favorites down to a more marginal 53% as the now nearly $223,000 in trading volume accumulated.

But that course corrected swiftly last night, no doubt with New York's dominant 15-1 drubbing as the key influence. Combine that with Cole being on the mound in a pitching mismatch, and there are plenty of signs pointing toward another easy Yankees victory. Which is why they now sit at 60%.

Cole is still easing back into form at the major-league level, and his workload will likely still be limited to some degree. He threw only 72 pitches during his first start since the 2024 playoffs last time out. But that's all Cole needed to stifle a potent Tampa Bay Rays offense, finishing with only two hits allowed and no earned runs.

It's early days yet in his comeback from a lengthy absence, but the true Cole sure seems to be present, with his fastball averaging 96.1 mph. If that version of the Cy Young odds winner shows up, there will be a significant mismatch against the Royals and their anemic 26th-ranked offense.

The Yankees' advantages continue when we look at who the Royals are trotting out to the mound. Lefty Noah Cameron's ERA sits at 4.72 after a 2.99 last year, and he's destined for even further regression with his fastball coming with an expected slugging percentage of .562.

My prediction: Yankees win. New York boasts the league's best OPS against lefties while sitting at .815, well clear of the Arizona Diamondbacks in second at .798.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Yankees vs. Royals?

You simply do not want to be a substandard lefty facing Aaron Judge.

Yes, Judge has cooled off significantly while slashing just .196/.288/.326 over the past two weeks. But spending a good chunk of his evening against a southpaw in Cameron who leans heavily on a fastball with 18th percentile velocity (92.2 mph) can sure cure what ails Judge.

Cameron's ground ball rate has also dropped considerably, going from 41.2% last year to 34% now. That's a tough way to live against Judge, which is why he's the faraway front-runner to go deep tonight while getting a 27% chance. And when Cameron departs, Judge can feast on MLB's 27th-ranked bullpen.

Bobby Witt Jr. trails sizably at 17%, though he's been enjoying a far better month of May (.922 OPS) than March and April (.797).

My prediction: Aaron Judge to hit a home run. Cameron's fastball also comes with a 54.5 hard-hit rate. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Royals?

The probability of a first-inning run has been rising sharply since hitting a low late last night. That's when it sat at just 48%, but then amid some peaks and valleys the chances kept climbing and now sit at 53%.

For that to come to fruition the Yankees' power-filled offense likely needs to do the lifting, as it's difficult to count on the Royals and their sputtering lineup. The latter sports an OPS of just .688 (22nd), far worse than the Yankees at .770 (second).

That's why Kansas City sits a lowly 24th in the YRFI standings at 24-31, while the Yankees are tied for seventh at 30-25. Cameron pitched a shutout in his last outing, but that came after a stretch of six straight allowing three-plus earned runs, including two in the first inning.

These same Yankees also pounced on him for five earned runs and three homers in mid-April.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The mismatch against Cameron for the Yankees is just too severe, especially given their effectiveness against lefties. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Yankees vs. Royals win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Royals

• Date: Wednesday, May 27
• First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City)
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Royals starter: Noah Cameron (2-3, 4.72 ERA)