⚾ Twins vs. Rangers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, June 18

The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers had a rare off day in the middle of a three-game series, but they resume for the series finale today with Minnesota looking to complete the sweep. First pitch from Globe Life Field in Arlington is set for 2:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with the starting pitching matchup featuring Joe Ryan and Jack Leiter. The Twins are a -130 betting favorite. 

My Twins vs. Rangers prediction backs the road favorites given the rough patch that Leiter is suffering through. Because of that, I expect Minnesota to jump on Leiter early and pave the way for a Ryan win, and expect much of the run support to come from a red-hot Twins slugger with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Twins vs. Rangers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.09 units

🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Rangers?

Texas hasn’t been swept at home since its first home series of the season (April 3-5 against the Reds), but the edge Minnesota has in the starting pitching matchup is too much to ignore.

Score prediction: Twins 5, Rangers 2

💰 Twins vs. Rangers prediction & best bet

Twins ML (-124)

Minnesota has outscored Texas 16-4 in the first two games, while batting .333 (8-for-24) with runners in scoring position. That’s a lot of traffic to put on the basepaths through 18 innings, and now they face Jack Leiter, who has pitched to a 6.15 ERA in his last five starts.

The Rangers have been outscored 16-1 in Leiter’s last two outings. And though they are 3-2 in his rough five-start stretch, opponents have averaged six runs per game. I do not expect Texas to keep up offensively, since it ranks 23rd in wRC+ and 25th in slugging in June. 

🔥 Best Twins vs. Rangers player prop bet

Joe Ryan to record a win (+140)

Since May 1, the Twins are 6-2 in Ryan’s eight starts. Ryan has only recorded a victory twice in that span when the team won by three runs apiece, and three of their four other wins in that span have been by one run.

I’m hoping for positive regression in the wins department and a more comfortable victory, as the righty has a solid 3.40 ERA in 68 starts dating back to the start of the 2024 season.

Ryan’s K-BB% ranks fifth only behind Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, Jacob Misiorowski, and Cristopher Sanchez. He has also proven durable, having already matched the number of starts in which he threw 100-plus pitches this season (four), as he did in 30 starts last season.

💣 Twins vs. Rangers home run prediction

Kody Clemens to hit a home run (+350)

Kody Clemens is amid his hottest stretch at the plate. He is batting .292 with seven home runs, 13 total extra-base hits, and 13 RBI in his last 18 games. His OPS has risen from .730 to .811, and he has more multi-hit games (six) than hitless games (four) in that span.

Leiter has allowed three home runs in his last four starts, and his 1.4 HR/9 rate is a product of his career-worst 32.4% fly ball rate. In addition, his xSLG is worse than his actual slugging percentage allowed on three of his four primary pitches.

Leiter has allowed seven of his 12 home runs to left-handed batters, with a slugging percentage 57 points worse than when facing righties.

🚀 Twins vs. Rangers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work cohesively to help Minnesota's chances of earning a victory, led by a dominant pitching outing from Joe Ryan. I decided to swap Clemens' home run wager with a more conservative RBI prop. That third leg still adds great value to this SGP considering Clemens has driven in at least one run in three of the last five games, with two three-RBI games in that span.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Twins vs. Rangers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I predicted Minnesota to win by a score of 5-2, but I'm getting a great price at FanDuel at -124 odds for the Twins to win outright. That is why I didn't feel compelled to get more aggressive with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line, plus Minnesota has won by exactly one run too often in Ryan's starts of late for my liking.

From a home run perspective, Byron Buxton's 23 home runs (all since April 13) are the most in the majors in that span. But his +250 odds at bet365 were too short for my liking, and I was more enticed by Clemens' +350 given his torrid hitting stretch.

📊 Live Twins vs. Rangers odds

On Wednesday night alone, the line steamed in Minnesota's favor. The biggest movement happened at BetMGM, where the Twins skyrocketed from an opening line of -115 to -135. And as of Wednesday night, the top sports betting sites were split between an O/U of 7.5 and 8 runs, so bettors could find great value from line shopping depending on which side of the total they're on.

📈 Twins vs. Rangers betting trends

🚑 Twins vs. Rangers injuries

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Rangers

• Date: Thursday, June 18
• First pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Twins starter: Joe Ryan (4-3, 3.17 ERA)
• Rangers starter: Jack Leiter (3-6, 4.97 ERA)