🏀 Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Wednesday, June 17
WNBA Commissioner's Cup action continues tonight with a rematch of last year's WNBA Finals when the Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET (USA Network, CNBC) from the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
With Las Vegas leading the WNBA championship odds and entering as a 6.5-point betting favorite, my Aces vs. Mercury prediction expects A'ja Wilson and Co. to bounce back from Monday's loss to the Dallas Wings.
🏀 Aces vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -6.5 (-120 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.83u | Phoenix is the worst ATS team in the W at 5-10 |
| Over 171.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | Las Vegas has hit the Over in three of its last four |
| A'ja Wilson to record a double-double (-108 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.93u | Wilson has four double-doubles in six Commissioner's Cup games |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.67 units
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🏆 Who will win Aces vs. Mercury?
While Phoenix opened the season by getting revenge for their WNBA Finals loss by beating Las Vegas in a blowout, these two teams have gone very different directions since then. With Wilson leading one of the league's top offenses, the Aces have too much firepower for Phoenix to handle and should win by eight-plus points.
Score prediction: Aces 92, Mercury 84
💰 Aces vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Aces -6.5 (-120)
Since losing to Phoenix, Las Vegas has gone 10-3, and two of those losses came to the Wings. No other team has an answer for Becky Hammon's offense, with Vegas No. 2 in offensive rating (111.2) and effective field-goal percentage (54.3%).
With Wilson being a threat inside the arc, she should draw plenty of attention from a Phoenix team that's bottom five in defensive rating (108.7).
And that will only open up the perimeter for Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young to expose a Mercury squad allowing the most threes per game (10.1) and the 3-point percentage (37.8%) in the W.
🔥 Best Aces vs. Mercury player prop bet
A'ja Wilson to record a double-double (-108)
In her ninth season, Wilson continues to prove she's going to go down as the best player in league history. Coming off her fourth WNBA MVP, Wilson is the only player in the league averaging 20-plus points per game (she's putting up a league-leading 25.6 PPG) and nine-plus rebounds per game.
Wilson has been a double-double machine down low with double-digit points and boards in six of her last nine games (66.7%). She's averaging 26 PPG and 10.9 RPG over her last nine and now sits top two in the W in PER (31.4) and offensive win shares (2.0).
Meanwhile, the Mercury are in the bottom five in effective field-goal percentage allowed (53.9%) and rebounds allowed per game (34.2).
🚀 Aces vs. Mercury same-game parlay
The Aces have dominated their opponents behind explosive offensive performances, including putting up triple digits in three of their last four outings. To do that again against a struggling Mercury squad, Wilson needs to continue to own the paint.
💵 Aces vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Aces -6.5 (-120)
- Over 171.5 (-110)
- A'ja Wilson to record a double-double (-120)
Best odds: +505 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 1.1u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-42 | -1.14 units ❌ | -1.8% ❌ |
| Game picks (spread/ML) | 12-7 | +3.70 units ✅ | 19.5% ✅ |
| Over/Under picks | 8-11 | -3.66 units ❌ | -19.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 11-10 | -0.36 units ❌ | -1.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 3-14 | -0.81 units ❌ | -19.8% ❌ |
📊 Live Aces vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Mercury
- Date: Wednesday, June 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: USA Network, CNBC
- Streaming: WNBA League Pass
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