Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Tonight Sept. 24
One team enters tonight with only a pinky-finger grip as it tries to hold on atop the AL East, while the other has won three of its past four games as we look at our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction.
The latter is the Boston Red Sox, who are seeking to secure a series win tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre. The Red Sox are the -125 betting favorite as we make our MLB picks.
The Blue Jays are on the wrong side of a slanted pitching matchup, and we're fading Max Scherzer in our player prop.
⚾ Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Red Sox (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🧦 Red Sox ML (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The mere presence of Scherzer on the mound for the Blue Jays could very well be enough for the Red Sox to deal them another gutshot in their pursuit of a division title, and in the World Series odds. More on him below, but for now know that Boston has produced the league's eighth-best OPS against righties (.745).
Scherzer hasn't pitched past the fifth inning since Aug. 25, and he's been gone before even five innings in three of his last four starts. So if he makes what has become a regular early exit, the starter will be passing the baton to an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that's been crawling its way to the finish line this season while often getting lambasted. Toronto's relievers rank 17th leaguewide in ERA (4.07).
On one side of our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, there's a pitching outlook perhaps best watched for Toronto fans through the cracks between fingers with eyes almost firmly covered. And who's on the other side? That's Garrett Crochet, who would be leading the AL Cy Young odds if not for Tarik Skubal's brilliance.
Crochet has recorded double-digit strikeouts in two of his past three outings. He sits in the top 7% of MLB in strikeout rate, and the lefty often relies on a lethal sweeper to finish batters off. Opponents are posting a batting average of just .097 in a two-strike count against that pitch. Leaning on Crochet for our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays best bet is an easy decision.
A $10 wager at these -125 betting odds from bet365 would lead to an $8 profit, with an implied win probability of 55.56%.
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💰 Best Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Max Scherzer Under 5.5 strikeouts (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Scherzer has put together a brilliant career, and he'll undoubtedly be honored in Cooperstown. But the time to wonder if he's struggling toward the end of his age-41 season was five starts ago.
Which means that now Toronto is far into white-knuckle territory as the club trots him out for a massively consequential game in the AL East battle, and there's little reason to believe a course correction is coming. That's why we're fading him in our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop bet.
Yes, Scherzer's seven earned runs allowed while recording just two outs during his last start against the Kansas City Royals was a unique rock bottom. But the veteran getting thumped isn't new. He's allowed four-plus earned runs in four of his past five appearances, a period during which his ERA has been climbing from a respectable 3.82 to 5.06.
He's also finished below this strikeout line in eight of his last nine starts since the beginning of August.
The line is surely set high still because the Red Sox have struck out the seventh-most times in MLB. But that likely won't matter if Scherzer isn't able to last long in the game and opponents keep crushing his four-seamer. He throws that pitch a whopping 47.9% of the time, and it's generating an expected slugging percentage of .568, per Baseball Savant.
Hurl yourself at this appealing -135 price from BetMGM, especially with projections listing Scherzer at 4.79 strikeouts for tonight. Those odds are far better than the -149 from DraftKings.
A $10 wager through BetMGM would lead to a profit of $7.41 on a winning bet, with an implied probability of 57.45%
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📊 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds: Sept. 24
MLB odds below update in real time:
📈 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting odds analysis
There's been some moderate moneyline movement already, with the Red Sox starting out at -150 before moving to as short as -125 at bet365. I suspect the line won't go much shorter than that given the favorable pitching matchup for Boston, and the nearly dead-even action so far. The Red Sox are getting only slightly more attention among moneyline bettors while drawing 51% of the action.
It's a different story with the total, which sits at a low 7.5 across most of the best sports betting apps. If, like me, you believe Boston can be the latest team to tee off on Scherzer and that will do the work to push this total Over, get your bet in now. Currently, 61% of the action is on the Over, so the 7.5 totals might not last long.
🔢 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Red Sox (86-71) | Statistic (per game) | Blue Jays (90-67) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Runs | 4.9 |
| 8.8 | Hits | 9.1 |
| .255 | AVG | .266 |
| .422 | SLG | .425 |
| .746 | OPS | .759 |
| 3.74 | ERA | 4.22 |
| 8.44 | K/9 | 8.92 |
| 3.3 | BB/9 | 3.2 |
| 1.0 | HR/9 | 1.3 |
📺 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 24
- First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
- How to watch: TV network (if local, say "Local TV")
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❓ Red Sox vs. Blue Jays FAQs
Who is favored to win Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?
The Red Sox are favored to beat the Blue Jays while receiving -132 betting odds, while the Blue Jays are the underdog at +112.
What is the run line for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?
The run line for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays is set at -1.5 in favor of Boston, with the Red Sox receiving +134 to cover. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are at -164 to cover +1.5.
What is the Over/Under for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?
The Over/Under for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays is set at 7.5, with the Over getting -102 odds and the Under at -120.
What are the best bets for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?
My best bets are Boston to win (-125), and Max Scherzer going Under 5.5 strikeouts (-129).
When is the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game?
The Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game tonight begins at 7:07 p.m. ET.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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