Pirates vs. Reds Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Tonight Sept. 24
Tonight's' pitching matchup features two of the game’s best hurlers, and I think it will be a tough night for both lineups as I make my Pirates vs. Reds prediction. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET tonight from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
For my MLB picks, I’m fading struggling Reds infielder Noelvi Marte at the plate, and I’m targeting the Under on one of his player props to reflect that.
⚾ Pirates vs. Reds prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Reds (-116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Reds +1.5 (-200 via bet365) ⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Pirates vs. Reds preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
I acknowledge this is a very low number to be targeting. I still think it’s a worthwhile pursuit with two of the game’s premier pitchers on the mound. Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes is the heavy favorite to win his first National League Cy Young, while Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene is coming off his first career shutout in his last outing.
Greene, in particular, has been dominant at home this season, registering a microscopic 1.44 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings (10 starts) at Great American Ball Park. The Reds have won Greene’s last five home starts and are 7-3 overall in his outings in Cincinnati.
Skenes, meanwhile, shut down the Reds in his only outing against them in 2025, punching out eight over six scoreless innings. The Pirates are last in MLB in runs per game, while the Reds are around league average.
One of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM, offered -110 odds on Under 7 runs, which nets out a profit of $9.09 on a $10 bet. The -110 odds have an implied probability of 52.38%.
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💰 Best Pirates vs. Reds player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🥶 Noelvi Marte Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-123) ⭐⭐⭐
Marte enters Wednesday’s game in a real offensive rut, hitting just .161 with one home run, six runs scored, and two RBI with 19 strikeouts over his last 15 games (56 at-bats).
He ranks in the 18th percentile in chase rate, which could be problematic against Skenes’ wide array of pitches that generate swinging strikes from opposing hitters. I feel like this is pretty good value on a struggling hitter going up against one of the game’s best pitchers.
A $10 bet on Marte’s Under pays out a profit of $8.13 at DraftKings. The -123 odds have an implied probability of 55.16%.
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📊 Pirates vs. Reds odds: Sept. 24
MLB odds below update in real time:
📈 Pirates vs. Reds betting odds analysis
Cincinnati opened as high as a -182 home favorite, with some of the best sports betting apps offering them as low as -165.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a bit of action coming in on the Pirates with Skenes on the hill as he tries to punctuate a dominant season on the mound.
🔢 Pirates vs. Reds stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Pirates (68-89) | Statistic (per game) | Reds (80-77) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | Runs | 4.45 |
| 7.67 | Hits | 8.20 |
| .231 | AVG | .244 |
| .350 | SLG | .392 |
| .655 | OPS | .707 |
| 3.81 | ERA | 3.91 |
| 8.21 | K/9 | 8.59 |
| 2.99 | BB/9 | 3.09 |
| 0.96 | HR/9 | 1.22 |
📺 Pirates vs. Reds game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 24
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
- How to watch: Local TV
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❓ Pirates vs. Reds FAQs
Who is favored to win Pirates vs. Reds?
The Reds are the -172 favorite to defeat the Pirates at home on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Pirates vs. Reds?
Some sportsbooks are offering the Pirates at -1.5 on the run line, while others have the Reds at -1.5 for Wednesday’s game.
What is the Over/Under for Pirates vs. Reds?
The total for Wednesday’s game between the Pirates and Reds is 7.
What are the best bets for Pirates vs. Reds?
My best bets for Wednesday’s Pirates vs. Reds game are Under 7 (-110) and Noelvi Marte Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-123).
When is the Pirates vs. Reds game?
First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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