⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, May 21
A tiny seven-game getaway day slate around MLB today cranks up the difficulty level even further on an already challenging market, but I'm still diving into those murky waters with my home run predictions today.
With my MLB picks I'm focusing on Atlanta Braves masher Matt Olson teeing off on a pitch that seems to give him great joy, and Cody Bellinger thriving amid the comforts of home.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 21
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson home run (+350 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Demolishes sinkers, one of Sandy Alcantara's most-used offerings. |
| Cody Bellinger home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1.08u | Has been thriving both in May, and at home. |
| Zach Neto home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Luis Severino struggles with significant control issues. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.76 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+360)
Olson is rather skilled at inflicting pain on baseballs in general, leading to his 14 home runs (seventh leaguewide) and .944 OPS (eighth).
But he really seems to enjoy the sight of a sinker coming at him, and perhaps not doing its desired function (um, sinking) quite enough. Olson is lighting sinkers on fire while posting a .697 slugging percentage, with a 53.6% hard-hit rate.
That positions him well tonight against the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara. A sinker is his second most-used pitch against lefties, and he throws it 21% of the time.
📡 SBR Edge: Exiting fast
Olson consistently produces quality contact, with an average exit velocity that sits 12th MLB-wide (93.7 mph).
π₯ More home run picks today
Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+540)
Cody Bellinger has been two completely different hitters at home versus on the road, which is a common fate for lefties given the allure of the short porch at Yankee Stadium.
He's posting a 1.244 OPS at home this season, which includes all six of his homers, and a .525 on the road. The outfielder has also been sizzling in May too while posting a 1.052 OPS compared to .732 in March and April, not coincidentally with 10 home games during the month thus far.
Bellinger will take all that against the Blue Jays tonight during a bullpen day for Toronto. The Jays' bullpen is tied for the 10th-most home runs allowed, and it sits a middling 16th with a 4.05 ERA.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Zach Neto to hit a home run (+490)
There's increasingly never a bad time to face Luis Severino, but right now is an especially good time, and Zach Neto stands to benefit.
Severino is struggling immensely with his control, leading to a staggering 5.1 BB/9. That lack of command has translated to more than just walks, as he's fresh off an outing with 10 hits allowed, five earned runs, and two homers.
There's nothing overwhelming about him when he's around the zone, too. That includes his sinker, Severino's most-used pitch that comes with an expected slugging of .540, according to Baseball Savant.
Neto boasts the patience to capitalize with his 12.9 walk rate, and his fly-ball rate has climbed from 31.6% last year to 37.3% now.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We get three appetizing batter-pitcher matchups today, and two sluggers at greater than +500 odds to really boost this parlay.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Matt Olson home run (+360)
- Cody Bellinger home run (+540)
- Zach Neto home run (+520)
Best odds: +16892 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 3.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-94-1 | -8.65 units β | -17.3% β |
| Home run picks | 12-60-0 | -3.85 units β | -24.7% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-17 | -0.94 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It's especially important amid a short getaway day slate to manage your risk when wagering on home runs. But if you can't resist the desire to sprinkle a little more, ride with Olson. The matchup is pristine, and he sits in the 95th percentile or above in expected slugging and average exit velocity.
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