⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: Top MLB No Run First Inning Predictions (May 21)
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Tonight for Thursday (May 21)
After splitting our picks last night but winning our two-unit wager, we’ve moved to 23-12 over the last two weeks while sitting on nearly six units of profit this season. Tonight, we’re targeting the Braves vs. Marlins and Athletics vs. Angels matchups to put up a pair of zeros. Six simple outs, baby. Let’s ride.
⚾ Best NRFI bets tonight: May 21
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds. Odds via FanDuel.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves vs. Marlins NRFI (-120) | 2u → 1.66u | Braves own a .204 xBA vs. Alcantara |
| Athletics vs. Angels NRFI (-110) | 1u -> 0.90u | Severino owns 25 K% vs. Angels |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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💰 Best NRFI bets tonight for Thursday
Braves vs. Marlins NRFI (-120) - 6:40 p.m. ET
- Spencer Strider (2.46 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (3.53 ERA)
- NRFI records: Braves (21-29) vs. Marlins (24-26)
This could be the largest sample size we've worked with all season long - Sandy's held the Braves to a .204 xBA across 246 plate appearances in his career. Featured here is Austin Riley and Matt Olson, who are both striking out at an average of 35% while hitting .150 against the Marlins ace. On the other side is Strider, who's limited the Marlins to just one hit in 12 at-bats - that'll play as part of our best NRFI bets today.
🤑 More MLB player props for Wednesday
Dive into Sean Tomlinson's home run predictions for Thursday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
Athletics vs. Angels NRFI (-110) - 9:38 p.m. ET
- Luis Severino (4.45 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (2.41 ERA)
- NRFI records: Athletics (23-26) vs. Angels (25-25)
We're going back to the well with Soriano here. Even though he's fallen back down to Earth recently, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt against the Athletics: Nick Kurtz owns just a .184 xBA against him across 10 at-bats, and Tyler Soderstrom is sitting at .266 xBA, which should be enough to get us the three outs we need. While I'm worried about Severino, he's still striking this Angels lineup out at a 25% rate. If we can get through Mike Trout, we should get out of the first frame unscathed.
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-30 | +6.71 units |
| NRFI picks | 30-28 | +5.26 units |
💡 How I'm betting NRFI picks tonight (May 21)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.,
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