⚾ Blue Jays vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 21)

Each game in a tightly fought series between two bitter AL East rivals has featured a mere one run separating the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, with the Bronx Bombers taking the first two before the Jays bounced back last night.

Now the Blue Jays vs. Yankees win probability for tonight through the prediction market apps is equally narrow, though the Yankees are receiving a 57% chance to take the series, getting revenge for the ALDS last fall and robbing Toronto of a road split.

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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

The probability has shifted significantly toward New York after Toronto started out as the brief but sizable favorite. The Jays were getting as high as a 72% chance to win when this market opened, and they've since fallen to 43% amid just over $164,000 in trading volume.

The swift fall is no doubt tied to the Jays using a bullpen day, which is becoming a necessity due to both injuries and underperformance while the club seeks a solution to its fifth starter spot. Spencer Miles is slated to get the bulk of the innings for Toronto, and he's been effective while suppressing power from the opposition and giving up an OPS of just .571.

But the Blue Jays' bullpen overall leaves a bit to be desired while sitting tied for 21st in batting average allowed (.249), and the unit is tied for the 10th-most homers given up (22).

None of that bodes well against the Yankees, and especially their lineup featuring four regulars with a hard-hit percentage above 45.0%. New York will counter with Carlos Rodon, who's still finding his footing after returning from an injury, but he boasts an 11.3 K/9 across two starts.

My prediction: Yankees win. Rodon has been tough on righties as a southpaw, and the Jays trot out a largely righty-dominant lineup, especially with Addison Barger still sidelined. The hurler gave up a .608 OPS to righties last year.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Blue Jays vs. Yankees?

Aaron Judge leads this market while getting a 26% probability of going deep. But as alluring as it is most nights to roll with the perennial bomber who's tied for third leaguewide with 16 dingers, Judge is in a bit of a valley right now, at least by his sky-high standards.

Judge has struck out seven times over the last two games in this series against the Blue Jays, and he's slashing a putrid .174/.269/.217 across the past week.

Slumps never last long because he's Aaron Judge. But right now his scuffling makes Cody Bellinger that much more appealing in this market, especially while sitting lower at a homer probability of 12%, just below Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 14%.

Over the same recent period Bellinger has been heating up while producing an .849 OPS. He's continually hitting balls with the ideal angle, with his uppercut swing leading to launch-angle sweet spot and squared-up percentages that both rest in the 94th percentile or above.

My prediction: Cody Bellinger to hit a home run. He's also thriving at home while posting a 1.244 OPS. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Blue Jays vs. Yankees?

We've been seeing a gradual rise in this market, with the probability of a run in the first inning dipping way down to 40.5% last night before rebound to a tossup at 50% now.

The Blue Jays will be asking a righty in Braydon Fisher to be their opener tonight and navigate the top of the Yankees' potent lineup. He's been reliable en route to a 3.08 ERA, though a look under the hood reveals a shaky barrel rate that sits in just the 11th percentile. That's concerning while needing to get Judge and Ben Rice out, as they possess massive pop.

Then there's Rodon, who could get back to himself quite quickly. But perhaps not tonight, or at least in the first inning. He's coughed up five earned runs across just eight innings, and his early average exit velocity allowed of 91.2 mph shows there's plenty to capitalize on in the opening frame.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The Yankees enter tonight with a YRFI record that's tied for seventh (28-22), and they've been especially effective at home in that regard (16-7). For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Blue Jays vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Yankees

• Date: Thursday, May 21
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Braydon Fisher (2-1, 3.08 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (0-1, 5.63 ERA)