⚾ Rays vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 15)

If the Los Angeles Dodgers want to defend their World Series title yet again, the path might need to go through the Tampa Bay Rays.

We'll get a preview of that potential playoff matchup when two teams that are in the top tier of their respective leagues clash tonight, and the Rays vs. Dodgers win probability from the prediction market apps shows a clear favorite.  

That's the Dodgers at a slanted 61%, even though they're sending a shaky journeyman lefty to the mound.

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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability

The Dodgers are now increasingly sizable favorites in a market that's been meandering a bit. The World Series odds leaders once held a 69.4% win probability, and that fell all the way down to 54% before rebounding now to 61%.

It's a significant lean ahead of a series between two of the behemoths in either league, and an odd one consider the pitching mismatch.

Yes, the Dodgers sit second leaguewide in runs and home runs, and first in OPS, so they can often outslug any pitching problems on their mound. Still, Eric Lauer presents quite the hurdle. The left-hander was brought in to fill a hole in the back of the Dodgers' rotation, and he's been giving up plenty of bombs while soaking up innings.

He's allowed four home runs across just 16 1/3 innings for the Dodgers. Lauer has managed to minimize the damage from those dingers, which is why his ERA in Los Angeles is at 2.76. But there's a significant element of good fortune there, as Lauer's expected ERA on the season still rests at 5.23, according to Baseball Savant. The poor velocity on his four-seamer of 90.7 mph has also led to an expected slugging percentage of .539.

On the other side is the Rays' Nick Martinez, who boasts a lethal changeup that hitters are slugging just .125 against.

My prediction: Rays win. The wheels on Lauer will become wobbly again soon and fall off, as his expected slugging percentage allowed of .499 sits in the bottom 8% leaguewide.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Rays vs. Dodgers?

Shohei Ohtani will lead this market pretty much any time he's on the field. Putting up two straight 50-plus homer seasons will have that effect. Ohtani has experienced a slight dropoff in production compared to those campaigns, but it's saying a whole lot when a .975 OPS is considered a downgrade.

Junior Caminero, the top slugger on the Rays, isn't far behind Ohtani while getting a 29% probability of launching one tonight. He sits among the top 25 leaguewide with 15 homers. But my focus is elsewhere while looking for as many opportunities as possible to fade the vulnerable Lauer.

The southpaw with a sluggish fastball is struggling in so very many ways, but one is against same-sided hitters. Lauer's weak velocity allows lefties to sit on his secondary pitches, which often lack precision. That has resulted in lefties like Jonathan Aranda, who's getting a much more appealing 16% homer probability, registering a 1.057 OPS against Lauer.

My prediction: Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run. He'll benefit from a Dodger Stadium launchpad that's the most homer-friendly venue leaguewide, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Rays vs. Dodgers?

There's been a back-and-forth journey in this market. That winding road began with the probability of a run in the first inning sitting at 55% earlier today before plunging to as low as 49%. It's since gradually risen back up to around 53%.

The presence of Lauer alone raises the likelihood of a run in the first inning. He's fresh off allowing two first-inning runs in his last start. And while Martinez has been impressive overall this season with his 2.43 ERA, he's endured several hiccups recently while surrendering nine earned runs across his last 11 innings. One of those runs came in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers, a game during which Martinez also gave up two of the six homers he's allowed this season.

There's a strong YRFI potential then, even if much of that relies on Lauer beginning to turn back into a pumpkin. He can provide the exception to the Dodgers' otherwise quality NRFI record, which sits tied for the eighth-best MLB-wide at 37-35.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Even the Rays, who have hit the league's fewest homers, could be able to muscle one deep early against Lauer, whose HR/9 sits at a ghastly 2.6 this season. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.

📊 Rays vs. Dodgers win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Dodgers

• Date: Monday, June 15
• First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Nick Martinez (6-2, 2.43 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.47 ERA)