⚾ Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, June 29

The Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians meet in a battle of first-place American League teams after successful series wins over the weekend. Cleveland is a -145 home betting favorite with Parker Messick on the mound, and he is opposed by Texas’ Tyler Alexander, who is being used in an opener role. First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

My Rangers vs. Guardians prediction backs the Under, despite Texas making a late change from Jacob deGrom (now starting tomorrow) to Alexander. I also expect Messick to turn in a quality start, with the last of my MLB picks being a value play on a Rangers slugger to do deep.

⚾ Rangers vs. Guardians picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.84 units

🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Guardians?

Cleveland is just 1-4 in Messick’s last five starts, and has been outscored 17-5 in his last two home starts. That is enough to back a surging Rangers team that has won four straight.

Score prediction: Rangers 4, Guardians 2

💰 Rangers vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-125)

Texas averaged 5.0 runs per game while winning three straight games and six of nine entering Sunday’s series finale against the Blue Jays. But it also got a 3.20 ERA from its starting rotation in that span, and I have confidence in whatever Rangers toe the rubber early behind Alexander as an opener.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are in their worse hitting split facing a southpaw. Texas has struck out at the third-highest rate against left-handed pitching, while ranking 18th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage in that split.

🔥 Best Rangers vs. Guardians player prop bet

Parker Messick Over 17.5 outs recorded (-152)

Messick was removed after 5.2 innings, a batter before completing six innings, in three of four starts from May 24 to June 10. However, following a stretch of five straight starts with fewer than six innings pitched, Messick has thrown 13.2 innings over his last two starts. Those are two of his six instances on the season where he threw at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs.

This is an interesting spot, as this is the first time Messick has faced a lineup for the second time. In an early June start, he allowed three earned runs over 5.2 innings to the Rangers. But all of that damage came in the sixth inning after Messick retired 15 of 16 batters through five. He was subsequently removed after 85 pitches, his fewest in a start in the last seven.

💣 Rangers vs. Guardians home run prediction

Jake Burger to hit a home run (+551)

Wyatt Langford was scratched over the weekend due to hamstring tightness, and Josh Jung was mired in a 1-for-21 slump entering Sunday. That means Jake Burger is one of the only Rangers sluggers that I have faith in.

Burger’s slugging percentage in road games is nearly 200 points higher than at home, and he entered yesterday with a 1.050 OPS over the last seven days. He has homered in four of the last five series that have gone at least three games, and I expect positive regression from his .410 xSLG that is well behind last year’s career low of .478.

This is a great value play, as Texas is one of two opponents this season with multiple home runs off Messick.

🚀 Rangers vs. Guardians same-game parlay

My original Jake Burger home run player prop wager contradicts the chances of the Under cashing. That's why I am swapping out that third leg of this same-game parlay for him to record a hit, which he has done in in 11 of his last 14, with the same amount of multi-hit games in that span as hitless games (three). Since DraftKings has the best odds for Messick's outs recorded and Burger's hits props, I'm making this SGP wager there as opposed to bet365, even though I'm getting a half-run worse on the total.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rangers vs. Guardians: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Since I predicted an outright Rangers win earlier, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Texas' +125 moneyline odds at BetMGM for the best value. But I prefer to take what I believe is the contrarian approach to the Under, given that many will back the Over given the Rangers deploying a bullpen game.

Cleveland has also hit an AL-worst 19 home runs in June, so I'd suggest looking to the Rangers lineup for any home run prop wagers.

📊 Live Rangers vs. Guardians odds

The moneyline has moved as much as 10 cents in Cleveland's favor at the best sports betting sites despite the home favorites attracting just 53% of the early wagers. That suggests sharps are likely siding with the Guardians, in addition to the announcement that Texas is using an opener instead of starting deGrom.

The betting splits on the total are also nearly dead even (54/46 in favor of the Under), so I would expect bet365 to align with the rest of the market and lower its O/U from 8 to 7.5 at some point before first pitch.

📈 Rangers vs. Guardians betting trends

🚑 Rangers vs. Guardians injuries

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Guardians

• Date: Monday, June 29
• First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rangers starter: Tyler Alexander (1-1, 2.62 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Parker Messick (7-4, 2.67 ERA)