⚾ Angels vs. Mariners Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, June 29
The Seattle Mariners fell under .500 and out of first place over the weekend, and will look to get right against the division's last place team, the Los Angeles Angels. This AL West rivalry features Ryan Johnson toeing the rubber for the Angels against George Kirby on the mound for the Mariners.
My Angels vs. Mariners prediction includes a run total, a player prop, a home run prop, and a same-game parlay for my latest MLB picks. First pitch can be seen on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV at 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park (Seattle), with the Mariners entering this game as -220 betting favorites.
⚾ Angels vs. Mariners picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.87u | Seattle's offensive should feed off the momentum of its highest scoring output in two weeks |
| George Kirby Over 5.5 hits allowed (+101 via Caesars) | 1u → 1.01u | Kirby's 106 hits allowed are 27 more than the next-closest Mariners starting pitcher |
| Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+575 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.44u | Arozarena had a .971 OPS in the first series against the Angels |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.32 units
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🏆 Who will win Angels vs. Mariners?
Seattle is 3-6 in Kirby’s nine starts since the calendar turned to May, so Los Angeles is worth a moneyline flier as underdogs despite the six-game gap between the teams in the standings.
Score prediction: Angels 6, Mariners 5
💰 Angels vs. Mariners prediction & best bet
Over 7.5 (-115)
The Mariners just snapped a streak of scoring three or fewer runs in 13 consecutive games, tying their franchise record in 2015. That was just six shy of the MLB record (since at least 1898), set by Cleveland in 1942 and Brooklyn in 1906.
The fact that Seattle went 5-8 in that poor offensive 13-game stretch speaks to the depth and quality of its starting pitching. But today its most inconsistent starter toes the rubber, as George Kirby has an ERA 1.4 runs worse at home than on the road. He’s been hit hard, allowing a .344 OBA in four starts this month.
📡 SBR Edge: A profitable trend in both splits
The Over is a profitable 18-17-1 in Seattle's 36 games as a home favorite, and has a 53.1% success rate when the Angels are a road underdog (17-15-1).
🔥 Best Angels vs. Mariners player prop bet
George Kirby Over 5.5 hits allowed (+101)
George Kirby pitches to contact, with five or fewer strikeouts five of his last six starts. That is a big reason he is usually economic with his pitch counts, while allowing seven-plus hits in nine of his last 13 starts.
With a low ceiling for strikeouts, Kirby is susceptible to a blow-up start against Los Angeles, who ranks eighth in BABIP (.297). Five projected Angels starters have a .286 career batting average or better against Kirby, who ranks in the 28th percentile in xBA,, and the 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
When the Angels took two of three games from the Mariners in the first series of the season, they recorded at least six hits twice against Seattle’s starting pitcher. I expect plenty of success up and down Los Angeles’ lineup tonight.
💣 Angels vs. Mariners home run prediction
Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+575)
Randy Arozarena snapped a seven-game RBI and home run drought with a three-run home run on Saturday at Cleveland. Though he has just two home runs this month, he is due for positive regression since he has slashed .281/.388/.439 in his first 16 June games.
Arozarena has not hit his home run in bunches this season, as he has gone fewer than seven games between home runs just once in between the eight he has hit. But this is a great matchup for him to inch closer to his sixth career 20-home run season, as Ryan Johnson has allowed a .605 slugging percentage to right-handed batters, including three home runs in 38 at-bats.
🚀 Angels vs. Mariners same-game parlay
All three legs of this same-game parlay fit the narrative for a slugfest and work together to help the Over cash. George Kirby has allowed a troubling .282 OBA through 16 starts this season, and Randy Arozarena has gone Over this projected total in seven of his last 13 games.
💵 Angels vs. Mariners SGP picks
- Over 8 (-120)
- George Kirby Over 5.5 hits allowed (+100)
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100)
Best odds: +633 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.63u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 44-29 | +10.52 units ✅ | +5.8% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Angels vs. Mariners: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Since I predicted an outright Angels win earlier, I would not put anyone off taking a flier on their +185 moneyline odds (carrying a 35.09% implied probability) for better value. But opponents have scored five or more runs in six of the last seven games started by Kirby, and that bodes well for the Over cashing even amid Seattle's middling offensive stretch.
📊 Live Angels vs. Mariners odds
The initial moneyline movement at the best sports betting apps went in Seattle's favor (as much as seven cents), with the Mariners attracting 65% of the early wagers.
There seems to be a mix of public and sharp action on both sides of the total. The O/U has bounced back and forth between 7.5 and 8 multiple times as of early Monday morning at BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings, while it was just a one-sided movement from 7.5 to 8 at bet365. The Over makes up 55% of the total bets.
📈 Angels vs. Mariners betting trends
| Angels | Statistic | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| 36-49 | W-L record | 42-43 |
| 46-39 | Run line record | 31-54 |
| 39-45-1 | O/U record | 39-43-3 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.59 | Team ERA | 3.72 |
| .240 | Team batting avg. | .232 |
| .716 | OPS | .695 |
🚑 Angels vs. Mariners injuries
📺 How to watch Angels vs. Mariners
- Date: Monday, June 29
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Angels starter: Ryan Johnson (1-2, 8.84 ERA)
- Mariners starter: George Kirby (6-7, 3.94 ERA)
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