Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, June 28
The New York Yankees will look to avoid a series sweep on the road against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball. The MLB's biggest rivalry will feature Carlos Rodon toeing the rubber for the Yankees against Sonny Gray on the mound for the Red Sox.
My Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction includes a run total, a player prop, a home run prop, and a same-game parlay for my latest MLB picks. Catch the first pitch on NBC and streaming on Peacock from Fenway Park (Boston), with the Red Sox entering this game as a marginal -118 betting favorite.
⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.0 (-104 via FanDuel) | 1.04u → 1u | Run total under has cashed in nine of 11 H2H matchups and five of last six home games for the Red Sox. |
| Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115 via FanDuel) | 1.15u → 1u | Contreras has gone over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in three of last four starts. |
| Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Home Runs (+543 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.35u | Goldschmidt has smashed eight home runs in last 20 starts. |
Total wagered: 2.44 units | Max profit: 3.35 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox?
It's tough to sweep a team in any series, let alone in the league's biggest rivalry. However, the Red Sox hold a pitching edge on Sunday, while their lineup has been hitting much better lately in comparison to the Yankees' cold bats. Boston wins its fourth straight game, 5-2, on Sunday Night Baseball.
Score prediction: Red Sox 5, Yankees 2
💰 Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet
Under 8.0 (-104)
The Yankees and Red Sox are both in the top 10 for most profitable teams toward the run total under in 2026. Nine of the last 11 head-to-head matchups have gone under the run total line, including five of Boston's last six games played at Fenway.
Sonny Gray ranks in the 63rd percentile for pitching run value, which is average. However, Gray is facing a struggling lineup, while ranked 77th or higher in ground ball rate (48.2), chase rate (33.6), and walk rate (6.4) this season.
Let's bet under 8.0 total runs on FanDuel at -104 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Rodon Bounce Back Spot
Carlos Rodon could bounce back against a Red Sox lineup still ranked in the bottom 10 in OPS (.699) this season. He's held all eight opponents faced to 3 or fewer earned runs, which builds an even stronger case for under 8.0.
🔥 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet
Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
One of the most consistent hitters in this Red Sox lineup in 2026 has been Willson Contreras. Acquired in the offseason, Contreras is red-hot right now, logging over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in three of his last four starts.
Contreras sits 95th in bat speed (76.6), 88th in xSLG (.492) and 84th in barrel rate (13.3) for the Red Sox this season. He's 99th in total batting run value (25) and sports an impressive .281 batting average.
While Rodon should be able to hold the line, he's still allowed 13 hits across his last two combined starts. Contreras is going to feast at the plate, easily cashing over 1.5 H+R+RBIs.
Stay on FanDuel to lock in the best odds on Contreras in this prop market at -115.
💣 Yankees vs. Red Sox home run prediction
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+543)
June has been quite a month for Paul Goldschmidt. The Yankees' 1B has recorded eight home runs in 20 starts since June 1, including a pair of home runs against the Tigers right before the Red Sox series began.
Goldschmidt's veteran presence is one of the only bright spots in the Yankees' current lineup. He's 81st in xSLG (.468) and 79th in barrel rate (12.2), giving him a good chance to go deep against Sonny Gray on Sunday night.
Gray is 15th percentile for fastball velo (92.0) and has given up big contact with a barrel rate of 7.3 (54th percentile) this year.
Bet on Goldschmidt to hit a home run on DraftKings at +543 odds.
💥 More home run action
For more dinger bets today, check out our MLB best home run predictions.
🚀 Yankees vs. Red Sox same-game parlay
The Red Sox will sweep this homestand against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. Gray has won four of his last five starts, and Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded 1+ hits in four of his previous five outings. Bet this SGP at +162 odds on FanDuel.
💵 Yankees vs. Red Sox SGP picks
- Red Sox ML (-118)
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 Hits (-240)
Best odds: +162 via FanDuel (0.75u -> 1.21u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-34-3 | -12.13 units ❌ | -32.5% ❌ |
| Game picks | 3-6-2 | -4.43 units ❌ | -40.27% ❌ |
| Player props | 4-21-1 | -6.06 units ❌ | -37.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-7 | -1.64 units ❌ | -20.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm deploying 3.19 units across four wagers in tonight's historic rivalry matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox. 1.04 units will be placed on under 8.0 total runs, with another 1.15 units staked on Red Sox C/1B Willson Contreras to go over 1.5 H+R+RBIs.
Yankees 1B Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run at +543 odds warrants a 0.25 unit wager. Then, to bring it home, a 0.75 unit bet on a two-leg SGP pairs the Red Sox moneyline with Boston CF Ceddanne Rafaela to record a hit at +162 odds.
📊 Live Yankees vs. Red Sox odds
There has been virtually no line movement since oddsmakers released the Red Sox moneyline at -118 and 8.0 total runs. Public action is on the Yankees moneyline (56%) and +1.5 run line (71%), while 73 percent are on over 8.0 total runs.
📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting trends
| Yankees | Statistic | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| 48-34 | W-L record | 35-46 |
| 38-44 | Run line record | 34-47 |
| 36-42-4 | O/U record | 35-43-3 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 3.32 | Team ERA | 3.77 |
| .242 | Team batting avg. | .244 |
| .760 | OPS | .699 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, June 28
- First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston, Mass.)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
- Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA)
- Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA)
Related Articles
