Phillies vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, June 28
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will close out their weekend NL East rivalry on Sunday, following the Mets' 6-2 win to level this series on Saturday. Jesus Luzardo takes on Cionel Perez on the mound, as the Mets will opt for a bullpen game on Sunday afternoon.
My Phillies vs. Mets prediction includes a run line, two player props, and a same-game parlay for my latest MLB picks. Stream the first pitch on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV at 1:40 p.m. ET from Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.) as the Phillies look to rebound as sizable favorites to take this road series.
⚾ Phillies vs. Mets picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Phillies -1.5 (+116 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.16u | Phillies have covered -1.5 in four straight starts by Jesus Luzardo. |
| Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-116 via DraftKings) | 1.16u → 1u | Marsh went over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in four straight starts before having his streak snapped in first two games of this Mets series. Leading hitter in Phillies lineup this season. |
| Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Home Runs (+453 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Harper has seven hits and two home runs across his past three starts. |
Total wagered: 2.41 units | Max profit: 3.29 units
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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Mets?
The Phillies dropped a game to the Mets on Saturday, deploying their bullpen on the mound. The lineup struggled with only five hits, but now, Philadelphia gets to face New York's bullpen on Sunday, which should cure their hitting woes. The Phillies cruise to a 7-3 road win at Citi Field today.
Score prediction: Phillies 7, Mets 3
💰 Phillies vs. Mets prediction & best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+116)
I've stayed away from run lines in my best bets so far, but this spot is too tempting to pass up, especially with the Phillies facing a weak Mets bullpen. In four straight starts, Jesus Luzardo has led Philadelphia to a multi-run win, covering -1.5.
Cionel Perez gets the start for the Mets today. In 30.2 innings of work, Perez has a 4.99 ERA and sits in the bottom-10 percentile for xERA, xBA, chase rate, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. The Phillies lineup should get off to a hot start in a prime bounce-back spot.
Bet the Phillies -1.5 at +116 odds on FanDuel.
📡 SBR Edge: Luzardo Limits Lineups
Jesus Luzardo is holding opposing lineups to a 3.24 ERA and a .224 batting average this season, both ranked in the 72nd percentile or better. Luzardo has allowed four earned runs across his last three combined starts.
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Mets player prop bet
Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-116)
Even with names like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies' left fielder, Brandon Marsh, has been the team's leading hitter in 2026. Marsh has 90 hits, holding an 11-hit lead over his teammates, while ranked 81st in batting run value (11) and 87th in xBA (.287).
In a bullpen game for the Mets, starting with Perez, the Phillies' clean-up hitter should wind up snapping a two-game drought in this 1.5 H+R+RBIs prop market. Before this series, Marsh had cashed this prop in four straight starts.
DraftKings offers the best price on Marsh to cash over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -116 odds.
💣 Phillies vs. Mets home run prediction
Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+453)
Bryce Harper has been on a tear during his last three starts for the Phillies. The star hitter has seven hits and two home runs during this stretch, including a 378-yard homer at Citi Field on Saturday.
Notable hitting ranks include xSLG (.557), putting Harper into elite 97th percentile territory. He's also 80th in barrel rate and 75th for hard-hit rate this season. Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but it does tend to reward left-handed power hitters like Harper.
Factoring in potentially four different pitchers that Harper will face on Sunday due to the Mets' bullpen strategy, he's got a strong chance to go deep for the 21st time this season.
Stay on DraftKings to lock in Bryce Harper to hit a home run at +453 odds.
💥 More home run action
For more dinger bets today, check out our MLB best home run predictions.
🚀 Phillies vs. Mets same-game parlay
We're already on the Phillies to win by multiple runs, so let's double down on their moneyline for the first leg of our SGP. Phillies C J.T. Realmuto has a hit in three of his last four starts, which brings us to +146 odds on FanDuel.
💵 Phillies vs. Mets SGP picks
- Phillies Moneyline (-144)
- J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 Hits (-220)
Best odds: +146 via FanDuel (0.75u -> 1.09u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-34-3 | -12.13 units ❌ | -32.5% ❌ |
| Game picks | 3-6-2 | -4.43 units ❌ | -40.27% ❌ |
| Player props | 4-21-1 | -6.06 units ❌ | -37.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-7 | -1.64 units ❌ | -20.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Mets: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking 3.16 units on four total wagers in today's NL East tilt between the Phillies and Mets. It starts with a full unit on the Phillies to cover -1.5 at plus odds, then another 1.16 unit bet on the Phillies' left fielder, Brandon Marsh, to log over 1.5 H+R+RBIs.
A 0.25 unit wager on Bryce Harper to hit a home run at +453 odds is my smallest bet, which still returns over a unit of profit. Then, a two-leg SGP with the Phillies moneyline and J.T. Realmuto to record a hit gets +146 odds, so I'm betting 0.75 units to win 1.09 units.
📊 Live Phillies vs. Mets odds
No line movement has occurred in either moneyline or run total market since lines were released at Mets +123 and 8.0. 84 percent of public bets are on the Phillies moneyline, including 83 percent of run line wagers. 79 percent of public action is also on over 8.0 total runs.
📈 Phillies vs. Mets betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| 46-37 | W-L record | 35-48 |
| 30-53 | Run line record | 33-50 |
| 35-45-3 | O/U record | 37-41-5 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 4.05 | Team ERA | 4.14 |
| .236 | Team batting avg. | .231 |
| .703 | OPS | .672 |
🚑 Phillies vs. Mets injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Mets
- Date: Sunday, June 28
- First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 4.00 ERA)
- Mets starter: Cionel Perez (3-3, 4.99 ERA)
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