MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, June 28
My best home run predictions today are largely centered around National League sluggers who are either currently amid hot stretches at the plate, and/or have had vast prior success against today’s divisional opponents.
Bryan Reynolds is in the middle of one of the longest on-base streaks of the MLB season and is a big reason for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offensive turnaround from last season. I also back Mookie Betts, who recently joined the 300-home run club, with the only one of my MLB home run picks from an American League slugger backing Gunnar Henderson.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 28
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Albies slugs 144 points better against LHP than RHP |
| Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Reynolds looks to inch closer to setting the Pirates' longest on-base streak in the Wild Card era |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+325 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.81u | Henderson has a .960 OPS in a large sample size against Zack Littell |
| Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+625 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.56u | Betts has homered in back-to-back games |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 5.37 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Ozzie Albies (+600)
Braves switch-hitter Ozzie Albies is in his better hitting split facing Giants southpaw Robbie Ray. Albies is slashing .309/.331/.518 against left-handed pitchers this year, with half of his 12 home runs coming against lefties (in 30 fewer at-bats than righties).
Albies is 3-for-12 with a home run in his career against Ray, and entered the weekend with an .831 OPS in June. This is a great value play, as Ray hasn’t allowed a run in 14 1/3 innings (spanning two starts), but has also been tagged for four-plus runs in two of his last three home starts.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Improved Pirates offense
In 2025, the Pirates ranked 30th in runs per game (3.6), home runs (117), and OPS (.655). This season, leading up to this series, they ranked fourth in runs per game (5.1), 14th in home runs (96), and third in OPS (.746).
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Bryan Reynolds (+600)
Bryan Reynolds is amid a 32-game on-base streak (and a 17-game hit streak), during which he has batted .360 with 18 extra-base hits and 20 RBI. That puts him just three shy of Pittsburgh’s longest single-season on-base streak in the Wild Card era.
Reynolds entered the series ranked third in OPS (1.123) since May 23 (min. 100 PA). His swing metrics are also on pace to improve dramatically from the last seven seasons. From 2019-25, Reynolds had a 27.7% chase percentage, 48.9% swing, 73.3% in-zone swing, 9.1% walk, and 43.7% hard-hit rate. This year, he was chasing just 23% of pitches, with a 44.2% swing, 68% in-zone swing%, 14.9% walk, and 48.4% hard-hit rate.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Gunnar Henderson (+325)
Gunnar Henderson is one of three active Orioles hitters with a .930 OPS or better in at least a 10 at-bat sample size against Nationals righty Zack Littell. Henderson has a .308/.345/.615 slash line with two of his eight hits off Littell going for home runs. While teammate Taylor Ward also has homered twice off Littell in 15 fewer at-bats, Henderson’s 16 home runs on the season compared to Ward’s five made the difference in this wager.
Littell has allowed six home runs in his last three starts, and his 3.45 HR/9 rate is the sixth-worst among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings in June.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Mookie Betts (+625)
Earlier this week, Mookie Betts became the 17th active player to hit 300 home runs. He entered this series with 230 pulled home runs, the third-most in the Statcast era (since 2015).
Betts started slow, with a .181/.250/.341 slash line and 10 extra-base hits over his first 35 games. But over the next 11, he raked to the tune of a .378/.417/.644 slash line and six extra-base hits.
More positive regression should be coming, as Betts has the third-largest gap in batting average versus expected average (min. 200 PA). His WAR is also the fourth-highest among players to debut in the Wild Card era through their age-33 season.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+600)
- Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+600)
- Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+325)
- Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+625)
Best odds: +150881 via bet365 (0.1u -> 150.9u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
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