Brazil vs. Japan Prediction: World Cup Picks & Best Bets (June 29)
Brazil looks to advance to the Round of 16 for the eighth successive World Cup when they face Japan in Monday's Round of 32 clash from Houston Stadium (1 p.m. ET, FOX Sports). I'm backing the -140 moneyline betting favorite to do that in my Brazil vs. Japan prediction.
Betting underdog Japan, meanwhile, hopes to pull off the upset and secure a berth in the Round of 16 for the second straight World Cup. But, as part of my World Cup predictions, I'm featuring the in-form Vinicius Junior with my goal-scorer pick to put an end to that dream.
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⚽ Brazil vs. Japan predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks across the best World Cup betting sites.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil ML | -140 via DraftKings | 1u -> 0.71u |
| Brazil ML & Under 4.5 goals | -111 via BetMGM | 1.5u -> 1.35u |
| Vinicius Junior anytime goal | +165 via DraftKings | 1u -> 1.65u |
⚽ Who will win Brazil vs. Japan?
I've been impressed with Japan, which enters on a 10-match unbeaten streak. However, the Round of 32 match against Brazil will be just beyond their capabilities, and while it should be close, I can't see them overcoming Little Canary.
Japan represents an altogether stiffer challenge than Haiti or Scotland, but Brazil is good enough to play one-touch football and bypass the Blue Samurai press. While it will be close, Brazil has slightly too much quality for an impressive Japanese side.
Score prediction: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan
💵 My best bet: Brazil and Under 4.5 goals (-111)
Brazil lost 3-2 to Japan in an October friendly, so there is precedent for the underdogs to advance and extend their unbeaten streak to 11 games.
However, Brazil are used to these types of high-profile, nip-and-tuck affairs, as they're commonplace in the most difficult region to qualify out of, CONMEBOL. Brazil didn't have to work terribly hard to brush past Haiti and Scotland.
That may be perceived as a negative, but the team will be confident and well-rested. I expect the Seleção to do just enough and extend their unbeaten streak to seven games.
🦶 Who will score in Brazil vs. Japan?
Follow all of our expert soccer betting analysis for the 2026 World Cup.
Vinicius Junior, F, Brazil (+165)
Vinicius Junior is Brazil's primary offensive threat as reflected by his recent goal-scoring record. He scored four goals in three group matches, bagging a brace in their previous match against Scotland.
Sure, one of those goals was handed to him on a gold platter, but he still had to be in the right place.
He also scored in a pre-tournament friendly against Panama, making it five goals in the previous five matches. While Vinicius Junior only netted 22 goals in 53 matches last season with Real Madrid, he isn't his club team's primary attacker. That role is reserved for Kylian Mbappe.
Best Brazil vs. Japan goal-scorer pick: Vinicius Junior (+150 via BetMGM)
🥅 Will both teams score in Brazil vs. Japan?
Japan scored at least one goal in the previous 10 matches, and Brazil conceded at least one in six of the previous eight. Little Canary kept a clean sheet against Haiti and Scotland, but neither team posed much of an offensive threat.
While Japan isn't a stranger to keeping clean sheets, having prevented their opponents from scoring in six of the previous eight, Brazil presents a formidable challenge going forward, with several players who can score in a flash.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (+100 via BetMGM)
💡 How to bet on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to bet BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop betting market across more than 7,000 matches.
📊 Brazil vs. Japan odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
📺 How to watch Brazil vs. Japan
- Date: Monday, June 29
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- TV/Streaming: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
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