France vs. Italy Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday's Nations League Match
My France vs. Italy prediction breaks down Friday's Nations League fixture as Les Bleus look to improve to 3-0 under new manager Zinedine Zidane. Sportsbooks think they're likely to do just that, listing the home side as a -223 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline.
Play from Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France, gets underway at 2:45 p.m. ET (Fubo). While the France side are heavy favorites to pick up the victory, my best soccer picks are more interested in value on the Italian side.
⚽ France vs. Italy predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Italy Over 10.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.63 units |
| France Over 4.5 corners | -200 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.25 units |
| Moise Kean to record 3+ shots | +100 via bet365 | 0.35 units to profit 0.35 units |
| Moise Kean to record 4+ shots | +250 via bet365 | 0.15 units to profit 0.38 units |
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💰 France vs. Italy best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Italy Over 10.5 shots (-120)
This mark is well below what we've seen from Italy in their first games of the tournament (21 shots, 14 shots), and while France will undoubtedly suppress that number a little more than Belgium or Turkiye, it should still translate to at least 11 shots against France. Les Bleus will dominate possession (they've held 64% and 65% in their two games), but that should force Italy into a direct, transition-oriented attack.
Most game states help this get over the line: if France scores first, Italy will need to open up to level the game; if Italy scores first, France will need to open up to level the game, which will expose their back line more. The only thing we really don't want is a prolonged 0-0 game, and even that isn't a nail in the coffin.
We're not asking Italy to score, or be competitive really, just to keep trying and shoot. A combination of counterattacks, prolonged stretches where they need to attack, and transitional play should help them get over this line.
🆚 Who will win France vs. Italy?
France has looked quite different in its two games so far with Zidane at the helm, and now Mbappé is injured. However, they've been solid defensively, while Italy really hasn't. Dominant possession, dominant defense — even if the offense is well short of what we've become used to, this should be three points for the hosts.
Score prediction: France 2, Italy 0
🔥 More France vs. Italy expert picks
France Over 4.5 corners (-200)
This is one of the longest bets I've ever given out, but I do have faith in France getting to five. Against Belgium (their first tournament game without Mbappe), France generated 18 shots (seven on target) and 41 touches in the opposition box, coming up with 12 crosses and repeated recycled attempts in the final third.
France are creating wide attacks and box entries and that style of offense results in blocked attempts that can result in corners. Italy has shown in both games (chasing versus Belgium, defending a lead versus Turkiye) that their defense is susceptible to giving up corners when pressure mounts against them.
I'm a little hesitant to push this too high - France had just six corners against Belgium and three against Turkiye. The price on Over 5.5 (-110) is more appealing, but there's less edge there - 6 corners is starting to push toward the tail end of my projections.
Moise Kean to record 3+ shots (+100) and 4+ shots (+250)
These wagers (0.35 units and 0.15 units) are just a play off where I'm backin Italy's attacking volume to come from. Kean produced a quarter of Italy's shots in the opener before sitting against Turkiye, so he should come in fresh. France are likely to dominate possession (seeing 60-65% isn't beyond what we should expect), so that will leave Italy attacking through transitions and quick vertical sequences. That should leave the forward chances to finish counters and take shots before France can se up defensively.
We don't need him to repeat his five shot performance, and there should be enough volume for him to comfortably pick up three (without worrying about if he hits target). The very small sprinkle on four is a priced-based play; it has just a 28.6% implied probability, and I think it might be closer to 32% or so. There's a touch of EV to be had there.
⚖️ France vs. Italy key stats
| France | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0-0 | 1-0-1 |
| Goals for | 2 | 4 |
| xG | 2.39 | 3.98 |
| Goals against | 0 | 3 |
| xGA | 1.90 | 5.65 |
| Average possession | 64.5% | 51% |
📊 France vs. Italy odds
Odds from bet365 as of Oct. 1; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: France (-223) | Draw (+425) | Italy (+475)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-225) | Under 2.5 (+170)
🆚 France vs. Italy projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for France vs. Italy; subject to change:
| France (4-3-3) | Italy (4-3-3) |
|---|---|
| Maignan (GK) | Donnarumma (GK) |
| Kounde (D) | Kayode (D) |
| Jacquet (D) | Mancini (D) |
| Lacroix (D) | Bastoni (D) |
| Truffert (D) | Calafiori (D) |
| Rabiot (M) | Barella (M) |
| Camavinga (M) | Tonali (M) |
| Cherki (M) | Fagioli (M) |
| Olise (F) | F. Esposito (F) |
| Dembele (F) | Keane (F) |
| Barcola (F) | Cambiaghi (F) |
📺 How to watch France vs. Italy
- Date: Friday, Oct. 2
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Stade de France (Saint-Denis, France)
- TV/Streaming: Fubo
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