Rangers vs. Blue Jays Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Can Toronto Outlast deGrom Again?
One club is the best in the American League and rising up the World Series odds as we make our Rangers vs. Blue Jays predictions, while the other is sliding.
The latter is the Rangers, who have dropped six of their last seven contests and enter play tonight 3.5 games out of the final wild-card slot in the American League. The former is the now 71-51 Blue Jays, who sit atop both the American League and the always-feisty AL East.
However, most of our best sports betting sites are listing this game as a pick'em while we make our Rangers vs. Blue Jays best bets. First pitch is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET from the Rogers Centre.
⚾ Rangers vs. Blue Jays predictions & odds
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💰 Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet
✅ Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays to win (-105 via bet365)
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Our best MLB betting sites understandably seem torn on this game, with most listing it at or near a pick 'em.
That indecision is surely tied to the mere presence of Jacob deGrom, the two-time Cy Young winner who remains his typically dominant self, even at the age of 37. However, deGrom's dominance has taken a slightly different form, and that's central to our Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction.
His lack of health makes it hard to compare to previous seasons. But although his ERA shines at 2.86, the contact deGrom allows can increasingly be of the booming variety, at least compared to past norms.
The 2022 season was the last time he logged 60-plus innings (he's far above that now at 135 1/3), and he gave up a hard-hit rate of just 31.8% then. That's up to 41.7% now. Combine that with the Blue Jays' top-tier ability to minimize strikeouts and put the ball in play (more on that below), and they get the edge in what should be a tight matchup in our Rangers vs. Blue Jays best bet.
💰 Best Rangers vs. Blue Jays player prop
✅ Best Rangers vs. Blue Jays player prop: Jacob deGrom Under 5.5 strikeouts (-135 via Caesars)
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Yes, fading deGrom in any manner is terrifying stuff, and he's often topped this strikeout total with ease, including five of his last seven outings. He's been averaging seven strikouts per game during that stretch.
But it's important to remember as we make our best Rangers vs. Blue Jays player props picks that, like most high-end veteran pitchers, deGrom is making an effort to age gracefully. That's resulted in strikeout totals that are still scary, though down from his previous blistering pace.
Again, we have to use the 2022 season to get even a modest sample size due to deGrom's health issues, as that's the last time he made 10-plus starts. His K/9 sat at a bonkers 14.3 that season, and it's now down to 9.5.
That's still well above the current league average of 8.4, but it reduces the fear factor of this pick to a healthy yet still sweaty level. Your sweat might go down that much further once you remember the Blue Jays boast five regulars with a strikeout percentage of 15% or lower, one of whom is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose temperature has been steadily rising.
There's a reason why deGrom didn't register a single strikeout over 5 1/3 innings the last time he faced this Blue Jays lineup in late May, a team that strikes out less than any other. He'll surely keep the score low while inducing enough weak contact, as he did that day en route to a 2-1 Rangers loss. But the strikeouts could be difficult to pile up.
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