⚾ Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, April 26

The Pittsburgh Pirates look for a three-game sweep of their National League Central rival the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of a three-game series from American Family Field on Sunday afternoon. The starting pitching matchup is between Carmen Mlodzinski and Kyle Harrison, with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Brewers are -130 moneyline favorites for our MLB picks.

My Pirates vs. Brewers prediction backs Milwaukee to avoid its second sweep of the season, and Brice Turang continuing to be a menace at the plate.

⚾ Pirates vs. Brewers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.08 units

🏆 Who will win Pirates vs. Brewers?

Pittsburgh added several bats to boost an offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in several categories last season. But it still went 15-21 against left-handed starters, which is why I give the edge to Milwaukee behind Kyle Harrison.

Score prediction: Brewers 4, Pirates 3

💰 Pirates vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Brewers ML (-126)

Milwaukee is 2-2 in Kyle Harrison’s four starts, but it only allowed three runs in the two losses. He has yet to turn in a quality start, but Harrison does a great job of inducing soft contact. He ranks in the 78th percentile in hard-hit rate and among the top third of all qualified pitchers in barrels.

Pittsburgh ranks 19th in both wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. And while he's ninth in BABIP in that split, Harrison boasts swing-and-miss potential to combat that, ranking in the top half of the league in whiff and strikeout rate.

🔥 Best Pirates vs. Brewers player prop bet

Brice Turang Over 0.5 runs (+104)

Brice Turang entered the weekend as one of MLB’s most consistent hitters. He was amid a 29-game on-base streak (he extended that to 30 yesterday), during which he had a .417 on-base percentage, 12 extra-base hits, 22 RBIs, and 22 runs scored.

Turang is 0-for-6 in a small sample size against Mlodzinski, but the righty is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs during a road start against Texas. 

While Harrison induces soft contact, Mlodzinski is consistently giving up bullets, ranking in the sixth percentile in average exit velocity and the first percentile in hard-hit rate. 

I'm getting great odds for Turang to cross the plate at least once for the fifth time in 10 games.

💣 Pirates vs. Brewers home run prediction

Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+500)

Harrison has reverse splits, allowing a .353/.450/.471 slash line to left-handed hitters, and a .200/.298/.340 slash line to righties.

This is therefore a great opportunity to find value with Oneil Cruz, who has posted the second-highest hard-hit percentage of all sluggers (minimum 400 plate appearances) since the start of 2025.

Cruz has been a menace away from home, slugging his way to a .942 OPS in road games, with six of his eight home runs coming away from PNC Park. He's 0-for-2 in a small sample size against Harrison, but three of his last four hits have gone for extra bases, and there aren’t many players with a higher likelihood of homering in this game than Cruz.

🚀 Pirates vs. Brewers same-game parlay

Since my Cruz home run wager directly contradicted Milwaukee's chances of winning outright, I swapped that with him recording two-plus total bases for this parlay. He's logged as many extra-base hits as singles over the last 15 days.

Though I'm sacrificing some value with the first two legs of this SGP at bet365, it still offers the best payout overall thanks to Cruz's total bases odds (the next best price at any of the best sports betting sites is +131 at DraftKings).

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Pirates vs. Brewers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Since my player prop wagers have made up the bulk of my profits to this point, I'm not changing my approach, which is putting one unit apiece on my game prediction and player prop, while wagering 0.25 units on my top home run prop.

Milwaukee's moneyline odds are also affordable enough for me to back it to win outright, as I'd switch to laying the -1.5 runs at plus-money odds if the Brewers were anywhere -140 or higher.

📊 Live Pirates vs. Brewers odds

Milwaukee ranges from a -126 favorite to -131 at the high end of the market through DraftKings. But the Pirates are a popular underdog at DraftKings while attracting 40% of the early wagers, so that sportsbook may not feature the steepest odds on the favorite for long.

The O/U is at 7.5 runs across the best MLB betting sites, with the Over juiced as high as -115 (53.49% implied odds) at BetMGM. Several shops (FanDuel, Caesars, and DraftKings) have come down from opening totals of 8. But that's a case of reverse line movement and likely sharp action at DraftKings, as the early betting splits there are 4-to-1 in favor of the Over.

📈 Pirates vs. Brewers betting trends

🚑 Pirates vs. Brewers injuries

📺 How to watch Pirates vs. Brewers

• Date: Sunday, April 26
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Pirates starter: Carmen Mlodzinski (1-1, 3.28 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Kyle Harrison (1-1, 3.06 ERA)