⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, April 26
Five of Sunday’s 16 MLB games are between division rivals, and that familiarity leads to more data to scour. I take advantage of that information, with two of my home run predictions today coming from divisional games.
Bettors seemingly have a wide variety of Atlanta Braves hitters to use, as several of the team’s sluggers have burned Aaron Nola over his 38 prior starts in the rivalry. I also target the NL West game in Mexico City with my MLB home run picks, as Manny Machado again looks to take advantage of the altitude there.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 26
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado to hit a home run (+260 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.65u | The ball carries better in Mexico City's altitude than it does at Coors Field. |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+500 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.25u | Acuna Jr. is one of several Braves with outstanding career numbers against Aaron Nola. |
| Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+337 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.84u | Nearly half of Murakami's hits this season have been home runs. |
| James Wood to hit a home run (+419 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.05u | Wood ranks in the top 10 among all batters in nearly every power category. |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 3.79 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+260)
In 2023 when Manny Machado played in this same Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu in Mexico City, he had two of the game’s 11 home runs, all while 10 different sluggers went yard.
There's not a better home run happy environment on the day’s schedule, as Mexico City is 7,350 feet above sea level, 2,000 feet higher than Coors Field in Denver. The altitude not only aids in more home run volume, but seven of the previous home runs traveled 440 feet, and four went 450-plus. Those were each records in the Statcast Era (since 2015) for one game.
📡 SBR Edge: History against Ryne Nelson
Manny Machado is one of four current Padres that have homered off of Ryne Nelson, while teammate Xander Bogaerts is the only one with multiple homers in that split (three in 14 at-bats).
🔥 More home run picks today
Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+500)
Aaron Nola has allowed a .293/.348/.581 slash line in 311 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters. And Ronald Acuna Jr. is also one of five with a .943 OPS or better against the righty (minimum 15 ABs).
Acuna has registered just two home runs, but he enters amid a 17-game on-base streak. And when the Braves took Friday’s series opener, they improved their runs per game average to 6.5 over the last 16. Acuna added directly to that with his 18th career homer against Philadelphia, tied for his third-most against any opponent.
It's hard to argue with Acuna’s career numbers against Nola, as four of his nine extra-base hits have been home runs, and he's slashing .308/.390/.635.
Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+337)
After Munetaka Murakami hit his MLB-leading 11th home run on Friday, he set a record for the most in MLB history by a rookie before May.
Murakami has embodied the “all or nothing” hitting approach, as 11 of his 23 hits have been home runs (the other 12 are singles). And during his seven-game hitting streak entering the weekend, he was batting .433 with six home runs, 11 RBI, and a 1.033 slugging percentage.
While it's unique that Murakami has only hit singles or home runs, he's anything but an undisciplined hitter. Entering the series, his 38% swing rate was among the 20 lowest of qualified batters, but Murakami's chase rate also ranked in the 94th percentile.
James Wood to hit a home run (+419)
Entering this series against the White Sox, James Wood had a three-game RBI streak while slashing .286/.412/.714 over that span. At that time, he ranked in the top three of the majors in home runs, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate, while his .451 xwOBA and .667 expected slugging ranked fourth and sixth, respectively.
Since the start of 2025, Wood’s 1.024 slugging percentage to the opposite field was second among all players. And among those with 400 plate appearances in that span, his 58% hard-hit percentage trailed only Kyle Schwarber and Oneil Cruz.
Wood is 0-for-2 in a small sample size against Sean Burke, but his elite metrics and hot bat provide value for him to go deep again.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
All four legs of this home run parlay include players who either have enjoyed great career success against today's opposing starting pitcher (Machado and Acuna Jr.), or those who have had some of the most elite power numbers this season (Murakami and Wood).
While I typically prefer to form a parlay with no more than one slugger from each game, the Murakami vs. Wood matchup has me violating that rule in the Nationals-White Sox tilt.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Manny Machado to hit a home run (+252)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+500)
- Muneta Murakami to hit a home run (+337)
- James Wood to hit a home run (+419)
Best odds: +47801 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 478u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 54-61 | +23.1 units ✅ | +27.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 39-49 | +20.72 units ✅ | +36.3% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As usual, I'm risking a conservative 0.25 units of my bankroll on each of my home run picks. Given the volatility of the home run market, I love the position I'm in with only needing to hit on one of the non-Machado plays to turn a profit for today.
When we take into account the ballpark factors and altitude of Mexico City, I wouldn't put anyone off getting aggressive and adding more sluggers from that contest to their home run portfolios. Xander Bogaerts just had a five-game hitting streak snapped, but he provides value with +425 odds at bet365. He's posted a 1.429 OPS across 14 at-bats against Nelson.
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