⚾ Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, May 31

The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are set for an afternoon matchup as two of the top teams in the National League go head-to-head for the third and final game of a weekend series. Andrew Painter takes the mound for the Phillies with an uninspiring 5.40 ERA, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto will make his ninth start to improve to over .500 this season. 

My Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction and MLB picks include a total run prop, a player prop, a home run prop, and a same-game parlay. Tune in to the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET streaming on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles with the Dodgers valued as a heavy -225 moneyline betting favorite.

⚾ Phillies vs. Dodgers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.55 units | Max profit: 3.22 units

🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Dodgers?

The Phillies are trending up, winning four of their last five games ahead of today's matchup.

Despite the momentum, Painter will face an uphill battle against a stacked Dodgers lineup. His 5.40 ERA is a liability, and he also ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in pitching run value and fastball run value. 

I expect the Dodgers to wind up winning by multiple runs, while mostly shutting down a Phillies offense that can go cold quickly against a quality pitcher like Yamamoto. Dodgers win today's matchup 4-1 to take the series at home. 

Score prediction: Dodgers 4, Phillies 1

💰 Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet

Under 9.0 (-115)

Run total unders have been printing money for both of these teams in 2026. Notable trends include the Phillies going under the run total in seven straight road games, while the Dodgers have gone under in seven of their last eight games played at Dodger Stadium. 

Painter is the biggest risk factor in taking under 9.0 total runs. However, the Phillies' starter has improved lately, allowing two or fewer runs in three straight starts for the Phillies. 

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Dodgers player prop bet

Will Smith Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115)

The Dodgers have a lot of talented hitters, including Will Smith. He's gone over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in three of his past four starts, and now, he'll draw Painter, who has a 4.36 xERA and gives up a .262 batting average. 

Painter also has a 21.8 whiff rate, ranked in the bottom 25th percentile of MLB pitchers. Smith has a four-game hit streak, so all we'll need is a second hit, a run, or an RBI to cash this ticket with favorable -115 odds on BetMGM. 

💣 Phillies vs. Dodgers home run prediction

Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+490)

Remember when I said that Yamamoto would largely limit the Phillies' offense today? Bryce Harper is the exception. 

The lefty has a robust power-hitting profile this season, ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in xBA (.291), xSLG (.570), and a barrel rate in the 86th percentile (14.3). Harper has not gone yard yet in this series and faces Yamamoto, who has allowed six home runs in his last five starts. 

While Kyle Schwarber is a notably bigger favorite in the home run betting market, Harper's a huge value considering his slug percentage and barrel rate. Lock him in for his 14th homer in 2026. 

🚀 Phillies vs. Dodgers same-game parlay

The run total under is my favorite play in today's game between the Phillies and Dodgers. Painter and Yamamoto have both been good in terms of limiting runs in their last few starts. 

The Dodgers hold the edge at home with a better pitcher and lineup, going 6-1 SU at Dodger Stadium in their last seven games. After squandering a lead in the 8th inning yesterday, expect a strong bounce-back effort from Los Angeles to take this series.

💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Dodgers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I'm allocating 3.55 total units across four bets in today's game between the Phillies and Dodgers. The run total under 9.0 and Will Smith's Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs prop are each worth 1.15 units, while we're going a bit lighter on the +170 two-leg same-game parlay that features the Dodgers ML and Under 9.

Bryce Harper is our home run play, worth a quarter unit (0.25) at a lucrative +490 price. Ultimately, we need the Dodgers to keep playing well at home, while Painter's improved pitching can help keep the run total Under 9.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Dodgers odds

Since opening, the Dodgers' moneyline has stayed flat between -225 and -230 at the best sports betting sites. The run total has bounced between 9 and 8.5, signaling belief in the run total continuing to go under, while hesitation likely exists around Painter's potential for a blow-up. 

📈 Phillies vs. Dodgers betting trends

🚑 Phillies vs. Dodgers injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Dodgers

• Date: Sunday, May 31
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• Streaming: ESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (1-5, 5.40 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4-4, 3.09 ERA)