Phillies vs. Braves Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Saturday

Can Ranger Suarez stay in Cy Young form during prime time on Saturday? We take a look in our Phillies vs. Braves predictions.

Sean Tomlinson

Last updated: July 6, 2024 12:49 PM EDT • 4 min read

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez reacts after leaving the game against the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning at BayCare Ballpark as we look at our Phillies vs. Braves predictions. — Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez reacts after leaving the game against the Boston Red Sox in the fourth inning at BayCare Ballpark. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports.

In some ways, there's not much of a divide between the two teams set to clash on Fox during prime time on Saturday, as we look at our best Phillies vs. Braves player props.

Both teams are featured prominently in our World Series odds, with each sitting in the top five. A downright scary pitching staff is central to each squad too, with the Phillies sitting first leaguewide in ERA, and Atlanta not far behind in third. And each team is comfortably in a playoff position entering play on Saturday. Both sides are also dealing with key injuries, though the Braves' issue runs far deeper with Ronald Acuna lost for the season.

In other ways, there's a hilarious gap between the Phillies and nearly any other team. The Braves' offense remains impressive even without Acuna, but their quality plus-49 run differential is still far behind the Phillies' MLB-leading plus-119.

Still, there's even -110 moneyline odds heading into this matchup for a reason, with a tight affair expected between these two NL East rivals.

Phillies vs. Braves player props

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bryson Stott Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Phillies vs. Braves expert picks

Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ranger Suarez is part of a pitching staff that simply seems unfair, and it routinely cranks the difficulty level to expert for opposing batters. The staff leads MLB with a 3.20 ERA largely due to the efforts of Zack Wheeler and Suarez, who rank first and fourth in the NL, respectively, in our Cy Young odds.

Suarez achieves his success largely while leaning on his lethal sinker to induce weak contact. But although his strikeout production often might not seem imposing, he's still posting a respectable 8.7 K/9 in 2024, which is a tick or two above league average.

His strikeouts did take a dive throughout June, with his K/9 plunging to 6.4. However, the month of May when he registered a far more threatening 10.7 K/9 still isn't far in the rearview. And the strikeout line of 4.5 from bet365 on Saturday is a low bar to clear against a Braves offense that's whiffed the 12th-most in MLB. Suarez struck out seven Braves hitters in April during his previous outing against Atlanta in 2024.

There's significant value in this line too, as one projection model is forecasting 5.26 strikeouts for Suarez. Even more encouraging, the well-respected trading team at Pinnacle is offering -162 odds for the Over on 4.5 strikeouts, which is far shorter than the -130 from bet365.

A $10 wager at these odds would result in a $17.69 payout if the Over hits.

Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 57.08%

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Bryson Stott Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Watching Bryson Stott at the plate has not been an enjoyable experience for much of this season, with his batting average plunging from .280 to .243.

However, there's room for some positive regression, with his expected batting average sitting at .266. There's a similar gap between his actual slugging percentage of .355 and his expected mark that sits at .382.

But Stott hits from the left side, and this play is much more about Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach and his ineffectiveness against left-handed batters. That's expected to some degree, but the gap is wide with Schwellenbach, with the righty allowing an .881 OPS to lefties versus a .661 to righties.

Schwellenbach has also been getting napalmed lately while giving up four-plus earned runs in three of his last five starts, no doubt largely due to a mediocre hard-hit percentage of 39.8 that ranks in the 41st percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

Steer clear of FanDuel, with its -115 odds for this prop making the +110 at most of our other best sportsbooks look like a bargain by comparison. A $10 wager at these odds would lead to a $21 payout.

Best odds: +110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 47.62.%

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Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info

When: Saturday, July 6
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
How to watch: FOX
Favorite: Even (-110 via bet365)

Phillies vs. Braves player props made Saturday at 10:42 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.