Paul Skenes Prediction, Picks & Player Props Today, July 29

It's Paul Skenes Day, as the most exciting pitcher in baseball takes the mound again on Monday, and we're scouring our best MLB betting sites for any value on the superstar rookie.

The overwhelming MLB Rookie of the Year odds favorite will look to continue his reign of terror over hitters across the league when he takes on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston. We're providing our Paul Skenes prediction based on the odds from the best sports betting sites.  

Skenes is coming off another masterful start, as he struck out eight over 8 1/3 against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing only two earned runs on four hits. However, despite his brilliance, he took his first loss of the season.

The right-hander will look to get back in the win column on Monday, with his Pittsburgh Pirates fighting for an NL wild-card spot.

Will Skenes dominate once again, or will the Astros hand him his second straight loss?

Paul Skenes player props

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Paul Skenes Under 7.5 strikeouts (-134 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
• Paul Skenes Over 18.5 outs (+130 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
• Paul Skenes to go 3 up 3 down in the first inning (+145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Yankees vs. Phillies expert picks

MLB picks made Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Paul Skenes Under 7.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

It's a dangerous game playing Skenes' strikeouts Under, as he's gone Over this number in nine of 12 starts this season, including each of his last five.

However, based on the average of three of our trusted projection models, Skenes is projected to record just 6.48 strikeouts on Monday. When we run that against these -134 odds at BetRivers, we're getting nearly 18% positive expected value on this bet.

Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - opened with Under 7.5 priced at -168, and after briefly moving Skenes' strikeouts total to 6.5, it's back at 7.5 with the Under set at -178.

If you wagered $10 on this pick, you'd win $7.46 in profit.

Best odds: -134 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 57.26%

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Prediction: Paul Skenes Over 18.5 outs ⭐⭐⭐

This bet serves two purposes. First, it shows excellent value. Most of our other best sports betting apps have Over 18.5 outs priced around +110, and Pinnacle has it at a very short -110.

Second, it serves as a hedge of sorts against our previous bet. Skenes can rack up eight-plus strikeouts over only six innings, but he's far more likely to go Over this outs total if he does the same for the strikeouts.

This outs total is always a bit tricky, as it means Skenes has to go back out for the seventh frame. But the Pirates haven't shown us anything to suggest they're ready to begin limiting his innings here in July.

Best odds: +130 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 43.48%

Prediction: Paul Skenes to go 3 up 3 down in the first inning ⭐⭐⭐

This is a fun one from FanDuel as part of its Paul Skenes Specials. There are various equally fun bets as part of that market, but we're riding with the right-hander to have a perfect first inning.

Skenes has gone three up, three down in each of his last three starts, so these +145 odds are very enticing.

This is only a three-star pick, though. The reason all of our picks are three stars instead of four is that we're entering some unknown territory with Skenes. Will the Pirates begin to limit him? Will he pitch differently - perhaps more to contact - to save his arm for a potential playoff run?

It's difficult to know, really. When you combine that with the fact that projection models have somewhat struggled this season to predict what the top rookie pitchers will do during any given start, we'll temper our expectations on Monday.

A winning $10 bet still gets you $14.50 in profit, so you don't get to go overboard, anyway.

Best odds: +145 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.82%

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Pirates vs. Astros odds & game info

• When: Monday, July 29
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
• How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Space City Home Network
• Favorite: Pirates (-135 via bet365)

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