Padres vs. Yankees Prediction: May 6 Odds & Expert Picks

Following a rainy night in The Bronx, we're backing the Padres to make it two in a row tonight. We're also looking at why YRFI is the right choice and offering a pick on the total via ChatGPT.

Andrew Brennan

Last updated: May 6, 2025 2:18 PM EDT • 4 min read

Padres vs. Yankees Prediction: Odds & Expert Picks, May 6 — Pictured: San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. walks to the on-deck circle against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Photo by David Dermer via Imagn Images.

I'm backing Fernando Tatis Jr. and Co. with my Padres vs. Yankees prediction for tonight's 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS) game at Yankee Stadium.

💰 Padres vs. Yankees expert picks tonight: May 6

Here are my best Padres vs. Yankees predictions for today's MLB matchup, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide for how to bet on the MLB.

Game pick: Padres to win (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
AI game pick: Under 8 (-115 via DraftKings)
First-inning pick: YRFI (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾ Padres vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Padres 5, Yankees 3

The Padres took Game 1 of this series last night in a rainy one at Yankee Stadium, and I think they'll make it back-to-back wins during this interleague showdown tonight.

While the story of last night's affair was the implosion of New York's bullpen and the strength of the Padres' unit, it's all about the starting pitchers for me on Tuesday.

Former Yankee Michael King returns to The Bronx after being included in the Juan Soto trade. I'm sure he'll be eager to show the Yankees what they're missing now that they have neither Soto, King, nor a World Series ring to show for that deal.

Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt is off to a rough start to this season following a very solid 2024 campaign. He owns an inflated 5.52 ERA, and although his xERA is significantly better, several of his underlying stats tell the story of a pitcher who's struggling to find it. That's not ideal against a Padres team ready to welcome back Jackson Merrill.

Merrill was annihilating opposing pitchers before going down with a hamstring injury, and San Diego will gladly slot him into the heart of its order. All of this should lead to a Padres victory.

✅ Best bet: Padres moneyline (-102 via FanDuel)

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🔢 Padres vs. Yankees odds

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🤖 Padres vs. Yankees AI score prediction: Padres 4, Yankees 3

(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events)

🖥️ AI predictions for Padres vs. Yankees

The projected final score is Padres 4, Yankees 3.

Pitching matchup: The Padres will start Michael King (4–1, 2.09 ERA), who has been dominant this season. The Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt (0–1, 5.52 ERA), who has struggled in limited innings.
Recent performance: The Padres are on a six-game winning streak, including a 4-3 comeback victory over the Yankees last night. The Yankees have lost three straight games.
Betting odds: The game is considered a pick'em, with both teams getting similar moneyline odds. The Over/Under is set at eight runs, suggesting a close and moderately low-scoring game.

1️⃣ Padres vs. Yankees first-inning prediction: YRFI (-102 via BetMGM)

This is all about the Padres getting to Schmidt, and I think it happens almost immediately.

San Diego's lineup does get increasingly less talented toward the bottom, with a washed-up Xander Bogaerts before Jose Iglesias (whose 2024 magic is no more), Jason Heyward and his abysmal 56 wRC+, and whoever is catching that day. However, the top of the order is truly ridiculous.

Tatis serves as an MLB MVP odds contender in the NL, Luis Arraez is batting right around .300 as he does every year, Manny Machado looks better at the plate than he has in either of the previous two seasons, and now Merrill will be added to the mix.

I'd wish even the best pitcher luck with that group. Schmidt will need a miracle to get through them without issue.

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🚑 Padres vs. Yankees injuries

Here are the latest injuries for tonight's Padres vs. Yankees matchup, which will update in real time.

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Yankees live tonight

📅 Tuesday, May 6
🕗 7:05 p.m. ET
📍 Yankees Stadium (The Bronx)
📺 TBS | 💻 MLB TV

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.