Padres vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 3)

Los Angeles is the overwhelming favorite in the Padres vs. Dodgers win probability from the prediction market apps, and the mere presence of Shohei Ohtani on the mound is much of the reason why.

The Dodgers are getting a 70% probability to take the second game of a four-game set against the division-rival Padres tonight at 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium (ESPN). Ohtani will oppose the struggling Michael King, setting up an opportunity for another triumph for the home side after a 12-7 win last night.

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🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability

The Dodgers started in this market as the substantial favorites with Ohtani throwing. That status has only been growing further, with Los Angeles shifting from being a 64% favorite to now sitting at 70% amid $277,720 in trading volume.

Ohtani has been enduring a bit of a speed wobble recently while pitching, at least by his astronomical standards. The powerful righty has given up nine earned runs across his last three starts, which comes after he permitted a mere five over the hurler's first 10 outings to begin the season.

But the under-the-hood metrics still glow for Ohtani, most impressively a barrel rate against that sits in the 95th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. And his fastball and sweeper come with a batting average allowed of .187 and .118, respectively.

Even if we do get the slightly less effective version of Ohtani tonight, the Padres aren't at all positioned to take advantage. A woeful offense that sits second-last MLB-wide continues to be the main factor in the team's downfall.

My prediction: Dodgers win. A rising walk rate with a plummeting strikeout rate is generally not a recipe for success. That's the situation King finds himself in, with the former at 3.6, and the latter way down to 7.8 after sitting as high as 10.4 not long ago in 2024.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Padres vs. Dodgers?

Ohtani leads this market by a considerable margin, as he often does. The two-way slugger sits at 25%, with a handful of other power options featured tonight packed together at around 16%.

Manny Machado is intriguing as comparably an underdog in this market. His awful season wasn't going to continue forever, and he's posted a 1.160 OPS over the past week with three dingers.

But even though he's been going through it a bit lately, Ohtani's HR/9 sits at a mere 0.3, making it difficult to back any Padres hitter. So instead, turn your gaze to Mookie Betts.

The veteran infielder has been comfortable against breaking pitches this season, and he's seeing sweepers especially well. Betts boasts a .538 slugging percentage and 54.5% hard-hit rate against a pitch that King throws 27% of the time to righties.

My prediction: Mookie Betts to hit a home run. Betts has been on fire too lately while slashing .385/.418/.692 over the past two weeks. For more home run analysis, see my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Padres vs. Dodgers?

The Dodgers notched their eighth win in the team's last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Padres are reeling after losing six straight. The latter is key here, as despite Ohtani's dominance and likely steamrolling of a putrid Padres offense, how San Diego has been losing is important to remember while assessing whether we'll see a first-inning run.

Yes, the Padres have been averaging a modest four runs per game during their skid. But they've also been allowing 11 runs per outing. A 23-3 loss to the Cubs that resembles a college football drubbing inflates that average, but there's still been three other games with nine-plus runs during a stretch of awfulness.

The Padres are the league's best NRFI team at 56-30, largely due to their poor offense, and the Dodgers aren't much further back in seventh at 46-42. But there's a path to going against those trends tonight, especially with King due to regress further with the .303 expected batting average on his four-seamer.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Ohtani isn't without his flaws, too. As dominant as he's still been at times, his K/9 has fallen from 11.9 last year to 9.7 now. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Padres vs. Dodgers win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Dodgers

• Date: Friday, July 3
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Michael King (5-7, 3.55 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Shohei Ohtani (8-2, 1.58 ERA)