Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds: Can Baltimore Avoid Sweep in ALDS Game 3?
The Baltimore Orioles are down two games to none in their ALDS against the Texas Rangers and we have you covered with our best Orioles vs. Rangers prediction for Game 3 based on the best MLB odds.
The Baltimore Orioles lost the first two games of the ALDS at home to the Texas Rangers by a combined score of 14-10, which dropped teams from the AL East’s record in the playoffs this year to 0-6.
In Game 2, Texas became the first team in postseason history with seven or more hits and seven or more walks through three innings. The Rangers head home to play their first postseason home game since 2016 while looking for the series sweep.
Unsurprisingly, the Orioles are now the biggest long shots of the eight remaining teams, according to the World Series odds. Several Rangers hitters are beginning to surface in the World Series MVP odds.
Here is our best Orioles vs. Rangers prediction (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Orioles vs. Rangers prediction
Orioles ML (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Orioles are one game away from being swept out of the playoffs in three games. But they can be confident heading to Texas for Game 3, as Baltimore tied Atlanta for the most road wins (52) in 2023. In addition, Baltimore was not swept in any series of two or more games all season and has not been swept in three or more games since Adley Rutschman’s call-up in May 2022.
Per MLB’s Sarah Langs, 17 teams made the playoffs after never being swept in a regular season series, and only one (the 1998 San Diego Padres) was swept in the playoffs.
With history on its side, Baltimore turns to Dean Kremer to stave off elimination. The move to start Kremer instead of Kyle Gibson may have come as a surprise, as Gibson has postseason experience. Kremer had the highest ERA (3.57) of any Orioles starter in September and October but has come up huge in two of Baltimore’s most important games this season. He pitched in its playoff-clinching win against the Tampa Bay Rays, and its AL East title-clinching win against the Boston Red Sox.
Kremer was fantastic down the stretch, producing a 3.09 ERA and recording 75 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings. In addition, he cut his home run rate down significantly, as he allowed 19 long balls in his first 17 starts and just eight over his final 15.
Lost amid the Orioles’ 11-8 loss on Sunday was the fact that they pounded 14 hits in 41 at-bats, with eight of those hits going for extra bases. Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi knows a thing or two about being involved in high-scoring affairs, as the Over has gone 14-8-4 in his 26 appearances this season.
Eovaldi has made 11 quality starts this season, and he threw a gem (one earned run over 6 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay) in his first start this postseason. However, he pitched to more contact this year (8.3 K/9 rate) than any year since 2018, which is dangerous when facing an Orioles lineup that ranked in the Top 9 of MLB and fourth in the AL in BABIP (.305) in the regular season.
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Orioles vs. Rangers best odds
bet365 (+120)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +114 | +118 | +115 | +118 | +120 |
As Orioles moneyline backers, we are headed to bet365 for our wager, as it is the only one our best sports betting sites offering better than +118 to back the underdogs.
At DraftKings, both teams have the same 4.5-run team total, though Texas’s Over is juiced to -115, while Baltimore has plus-money odds (+110) for its Over to cash.
With our moneyline wager, we are defying Texas’ 11-game winning streak against AL East opponents following a win.
Orioles vs. Rangers odds
Orioles vs. Rangers odds analysis
With the Orioles not announcing a starting pitcher until late Monday, the moneyline odds for this matchup have not moved much at the best sportsbooks. Caesars was the only sportsbook to have any slight change, going from Orioles +115 to +118. Baltimore has been a popular underdog, attracting 67% of the early wagers.
All sportsbooks are in unison with a total of 9 runs, and FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are all juiced to the Over at -115. FanDuel was the only shop to open slightly higher at 9.5, but Under backers bet it down to 9 by Monday morning.
Orioles vs. Rangers game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 10 at 8:03 p.m. ET
- Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 87 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph SSW
Orioles-Rangers pick made 10/9/2023 at 7:19 p.m. ET.
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