Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 23
Two teams looking to get back in the win column will face off when the Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets at 7:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Wrigley Field on TBS. My Mets vs. Cubs prediction believes Chicago will get the job done.
The Cubs have lost four straight, and the Mets have dropped back-to-back games while trying to fight for the final wild-card spot in the NL. Ahead of a contest priced as a pick 'em, my MLB picks believe the hosts hold value with Cade Horton on the mound for the Cubs.
⚾ Mets vs. Cubs prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Cubs ML (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Cubs +1.5 (-204 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mets vs. Cubs preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐻 Cubs ML (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Mets might bring more motivation while clawing for a playoff berth during the final week of the regular season. But the value is on the Cubs because of that. Ballpark Pal’s model projects a 59.1% chance of victory, suggesting a fair price of -144.
The easiest way to sell you on the Cubs is that Horton will get the nod. The National League MLB Rookie of the Year odds favorite is 11-4 with a 2.66 ERA across 21 starts. Horton has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 straight starts since July 20, which includes one run over his past three outings.
Additionally, this could be a favorable spot for Chicago’s lineup. The Mets will start left-hander David Peterson, who was tagged for six runs in his last appearance. The Cubs are sixth in the majors with a 108 wRC+ against left-handers.
I’m taking this -110 price via BetMGM to net $9.09 on a $10 wager for my Mets vs. Cubs prediction, with an implied probability of 52.38%.
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💰 Best Mets vs. Cubs player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 runs (+115) ⭐⭐⭐
Nico Hoerner, Chicago’s leadoff batter, leads all qualified hitters on the team with a 159 wRC+ across 72 games against lefties, posting a .358 batting average with 21 runs and 15 RBIs. That’s why his hitting props have been juiced, including a -164 offering on his Over for 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs.
As a result, I’m targeting the plus-money price on Hoerner to score a run instead. He's tallied 16 runs across 19 games during this month, which is why I project value on this prop at +102 or better.
At this +115 offering through FanDuel for my Mets vs. Cubs player prop, a $10 bet earns $11.50 on an implied probability of 46.51%.
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📊 Mets vs. Cubs odds: Sept. 23
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Mets vs. Cubs betting odds analysis
The Cubs started as -120 favorites, but this line has dropped to a coin flip overnight. That’s a result of the market banking on New York’s motivation, which has created value for the better team. The total has remained at 7.5, though 56% of the wagers have come in on the Over for this game.
🔢 Mets vs. Cubs stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mets | Statistic (per game) | Cubs |
| 4.74 | Runs | 4.81 |
| 8.4 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .250 | AVG | .249 |
| .429 | SLG | .426 |
| .756 | OPS | .746 |
| 3.99 | ERA | 3.82 |
| 8.7 | K/9 | 7.9 |
| 3.5 | BB/9 | 2.6 |
| 0.9 | HR/9 | 1.3 |
🚑 Mets vs. Cubs injury report
📺 Mets vs. Cubs game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 23
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
- How to watch: TBS
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❓ Mets vs. Cubs FAQs
Who is favored to win Mets vs. Cubs?
After the Cubs opened as -120 favorites, the line has moved to -110 odds for both teams.
What is the run line for Mets vs. Cubs?
Chicago is a -1.5 run line favorite against New York on Tuesday while getting betting odds around -155. Meanwhile, the Mets are receiving +1.5 at -190 odds.
What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Cubs?
The total for Tuesday’s Mets-Cubs matchup is 7.5.
What are the best bets for Mets vs. Cubs?
I like the Chicago moneyline (-110) and Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 runs (+115) as my best bets for Mets vs. Cubs on Tuesday.
When is the Mets vs. Cubs game?
First pitch for Mets vs. Cubs is 7:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday on TBS.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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