⚾ Mariners vs. Orioles Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 11)
The Baltimore Orioles stopped their slide last night, but they still face a hole to dig out from while trying to stave off another series loss tonight, this time against the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle took the first two games over Baltimore before losing 7-2, and the Mariners vs. Orioles win probability from the prediction market apps shows they're surging as the favorties to take the game and the series tonight.
The Mariners began as the steep underdog, but they've since been swiftly rising up to now sit with a 52% win probability.
➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.
🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Orioles? Live MLB win probability
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The win probabilities here have gone on quite the ride. The Orioles were initially a sizable favorite at 55%, but their plunge started yesterday afternoon. Eventually the Mariners surged ahead to become the new favorite at 52%, with Baltimore bottoming out at 49% amid nearly $29,000 in trading volume.
That aligns with the Orioles' recent struggles. Yes, they won last night. However, that victory snapped a four-game losing streak, which largely came due to a continually stumbling pitching staff. The Orioles allowed an average of six runs per game during that stretch.
The club may now be poorly positioned tonight against Seattle's starter Bryan Woo. While he's still not overpowering, his K/9 has risen from 6.6 last year to 7.4 now. His sweeper is working wonders against righties, leading to Woo's chase rate climbing similarly from 30.1% last year to 35% now.
My prediction: Mariners win. When Woo departs, the Orioles will then need to deal with the league's fifth-ranked bullpen. The Mariners' unit is sitting on an ERA of 3.33.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💣 Who will hit a home run in Mariners vs. Orioles?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | 20% |
| Julio Rodriguez | 18% |
| Randy Arozarena | 14% |
Alonso can easily be the exception to the Orioles' likely issues with Woo. He throttles fastballs, and Woo leans on that offering 49% of the time.
But my focus here is on Julio Rodriguez, who's sitting only marginally behind Alonso in terms of his home run probability tonight. The center fielder's bat speed is nearly unmatched leaguewide while sitting in the 96th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
That sets him up well against Kyle Bradish, who comes with the exact kind of profile that fits Rodriguez well. He fares better against breaking and offspeed pitches than fastballs, and Bradish uses his heater minimally while throwing it a mere 8% of the time against right-handed batters.
He leans on a sinker and slider primarily, and Rodriguez is slugging .465 and .585 against those pitches, respectively.
My prediction: Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run. He can also benefit from the reverse splits from Bradish, a right-hander who's allowing an .856 OPS against righties. For more home run analysis, see my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mariners vs. Orioles?
The probability of a run in the first inning has been declining dramatically. This market opened at 52% before a steep plunge to 47%.
That movement is no doubt rooted in what's transpired over the first three games of this series. While there's been plenty of scoring overall, much of it has come later, with a total of one run in the first inning thus far. There was no scoring until the bottom of the sixth last night.
It's an outcome that aligns well with how the Orioles play in their cavernous home ballpark. They boast MLB's third-best NRFI record at 40-29, with much of that coming from a 24-13 mark at home.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. Baltimore's home ballpark ranks 17th in its homer friendliness for right-handed batters, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.
📊 Mariners vs. Orioles win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 51% | 45% | ↑ 6% |
| Orioles | 49% | 55% | ↓ 6% |
📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Orioles
- Date: Thursday, June 11
- First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Camden Yards (Baltimore)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mariners starter: Bryan Woo (5-4, 3.74 ERA)
- Orioles starter: Kyle Bradish (3-7, 3.89 ERA)
Related Articles
