Italy vs. Japan Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ohtani Leads Japan Against Italy in WBC 2023 Quarterfinals
Italy surprisingly made it out of a balanced Pool A and now gets to face off in the quarterfinals against a stacked Japan team that has yet to lose a game. Read on for our top Italy vs. Japan pick for Thursday morning's WBC matchup.
The Pool A tiebreaker resulted in Italy beating out Netherlands, Panama, and Chinese Taipei for a spot in the quarterfinals as all five teams finished at 2-2. Italy beat Cuba 6-3 and the Netherlands 7-1 while losing 11-7 to Chinese Taipei and 2-0 to Panama.
Meanwhile, Japan swept through Pool B with a run differential of 38-8. Japan’s margins of victory were seven, nine, eight, and six runs in its four games in pool play.
Here is our best Italy vs. Japan WBC pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Italy vs. Japan pick: WBC 2023
Japan -3.5 (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Japan has yet to have a game finish within five runs, let alone three, as mentioned above. It is now the favorite to win it all and for good reason.
On the other side, Italy is pretty much just happy to have made it out of pool play. Vinnie Pasquantino is a good young player along with the Fletcher brothers, but they’re no match for the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Lars Nootbar, Masataka Yoshida, and the rest of Japan.
I’m expecting a relatively stress-free victory for Japan in its final game at the Tokyo Dome before it departs for the semifinals in Miami.
Italy vs. Japan best odds
Japan -3.5 (-135 via DraftKings)
| DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| -135 | -135 | -140 | -140 |
The run line is pretty similar across the board with Japan at -3.5 with odds between -135 and -140 at major sports betting sites. A few books also have Japan at -4 closer to -120.
Italy vs. Japan odds analysis
Japan opened as high as -430 on FanDuel but that has since plummetted with the moneyline between -800 (BetMGM) and -1250 (PointsBet).
The total is set at just 7.5 at most major books with the over favored at -120 or higher.
Italy vs. Japan game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 2023, 6 a.m. ET
- TV: FS2
- Location: Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan
- Weather: Indoors
Italy-Japan pick made 03/15/2023 at 4:01 p.m. ET.
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