⚾ Giants vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 7)

There have been two wildly different games so far in this series between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants, with a nail-biter last night and a lopsided destruction on Friday.

The rubber match is set for tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field (NBC), and the Cubs will look to keep picking themselves up after a 10-game losing streak in mid-May. Meanwhile, the Giants have now taken three of their last four.

The Giants vs. Cubs win probability from the prediction market apps shows an advantage for the home side, but only a modest one at 53%.

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🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability

The only elements possibly saving this game from being a homer-filled slugfest could be the ones nature provides.

The Windy City will be living up to its billing tonight, with a 10.3-mph wind forecasted to be blowing directly in from center field, and it's potentially set to knock down balls hit deep into the night.

But there's still a very real chance those missiles are launched so hard even Mother Nature doesn't stand a chance. There's been frequent liftoffs whenever Jameson Taillon is on the mound, and he leads MLB with 20 homers allowed. He's simply not missing barrels often enough for the Cubs, which is resulting in the thundering contact. His barrel rate given up sits in the second percentile and among the league's worst at 14.5%, according to Baseball Savant.

However, it would be easier to dream on a Giants upset tonight if they boasted the offense to take advantage of Taillon. Instead, their run production sits 21st, and they'll be relying on Trevor McDonald to stifle a Chicago club that's eighth in OPS. He's given up 12 earned runs across his last 15 innings.

My prediction: Cubs win. McDonald's chase rate is down notably from last year, falling from 48.1% to 30.1%. That leads to fewer strikeouts, a whole lot of balls in play, and more opportunities for chaos.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Giants vs. Cubs?

The wind will be an obstacle, as is so often the case at Wrigley Field. And especially if it's blowing straight in from center field as forecasted.

But if there's one hitter who can power through, it's the white-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong. He's getting the second-highest home run probability tonight at 15%, just behind the Giants' Rafael Devers, who's sitting at 20%.

Crow-Armstrong is absurdly slugging .958 over the past week. That run has featured four homers, two of which came last night, including a key game-tying blast in the bottom of the ninth before an extra-innings win.

That was part of a four-hit night for an outfielder who now boasts a 50.9% hard-hit rate, which rests in the 92nd percentile. He especially excels against sinkers too while slugging .714 against a pitch that McDonald leans on extensively, throwing it 55% of the time to lefties.

My prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run. McDonald's primary secondary pitch is a slider that he uses 27.4% of the time, and Crow-Armstrong is slugging .781 against the offering. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Giants vs. Cubs?

The chances of a run in the first inning tonight were hovering pretty high around 55% until early this morning, when the probability plunged to 47%.

But that feels like overcorrecting following a low-scoring 3-2 Cubs win last night that didn't feature a run until both teams scored once in the sixth inning. After all, just one game prior to that the Giants steamrolled their way to an 18-3 rout, including two runs in the first frame.

Yes, the Giants and Cubs overall are two of the league's best NRFI teams, with Chicago sitting second at 39-26, and San Francisco not far behind in fifth at 36-29. But it's a different outlook for the Cubs any time Taillon is starting, especially with his four-seamer carrying an expected slugging of .725. He's given up four-plus earned runs in three of his last four outings, including an eight-run outburst against the White Sox.

Then there's McDonald, whose sinker reliance makes him vulnerable against lefties. He's allowing an .841 OPS to left-handed batters, as opposed to a .448 when facing a righty.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. There are more than enough opportunities for damage early against McDonald and Taillon.

📊 Giants vs. Cubs win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Cubs

• Date: Sunday, June 7
• First pitch: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: NBC/Peacock
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Giants starter: Trevor McDonald (2-3, 4.50 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.18 ERA)