⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, June 7
The home run market is often rooted in finding a pitch that gets nailed, and a batter to nail it.
That's certainly the case in my home run predictions today, and especially as I pursue fastball mashing through Jackson Chourio, who's been sizzling recently with his 1.140 OPS over the past week.
He can pummel Kyle Freeland's fastball this afternoon as part of my MLB home run picks, and Pete Crow-Armstrong can do the same tonight while waiting to wallop a sinker.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio home run (+321 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.64u | Kyle Freeland's fastball is getting annihilated. |
| CJ Abrams home run (+680 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.36u | Much of his .908 OPS comes from heat hunting too. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Can pounce on Trevor McDonald's sinker. |
Total wagered: 0.20 units | Max profit: 2.98 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+321)
The homer haven of Coors Field is always a fine place to start your search for dingers, and especially when the 2026 version of Kyle Freeland is on the mound for the Rockies. The lefty's bloated ERA now sits at 8.06, a disastrous mark he's arrived at largely through an always smackable fastball.
All of Freeman's offerings have been destroyed, as he's giving up a .941 opposing OPS. But that's especially true for his four-seamer, which has come with an .800 slugging. That gives Jackson Chourio quite the matchup, as he's producing a 59.1% hard-hit rate against heaters.
📡 SBR Edge: Breaking down breaking balls
Chourio also excels against breaking balls while posting an expected slugging percentage of .602, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
CJ Abrams to hit a home run (+680)
The true sluggers need to punish whatever heaters they get, and that's been central to CJ Abrams' success this season. The shortstop whose .908 OPS sits 13th leaguewide is slugging .735 against four-seamers.
He'll spend a good chunk of his afternoon against Michael Soroka, who has been putting together a quality season with his 3.49 ERA, largely through a slurve that's generating a .202 batting average. However, if Abrams can lay off that deception, there will be opportunities against a fastball Soroka throws 32.9% of the time, and it's come with a .292 batting average.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+490)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been soaring recently while posting an astronomical 1.458 OPS across the past week, a run that includes clubbing four of the outfielder's 11 home runs this season.
That's intimidating enough for the opposing hurler, and especially the San Francisco Giants' Trevor McDonald tonight, who leans overwhelmingly on his sinker. McDonald, who's only eight starts into his career, has been throwing that pitch a whopping 59.1% of the time this season. Crow-Armstrong has been demolishing that offering while slugging .714 against sinkers, with a .500 batting average.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're rolling with a trifecta of sluggers who mash against a specific pitch today, with Crow-Armstrng standing out the most in that regard during the prime-time affair.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jackson Chourio home run (+321)
- CJ Abrams home run (+680)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+480)
Best odds: +18946 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 3.8u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-111-1 | -9.36 units β | -16.8% β |
| Home run picks | 17-74-0 | -3.66 units β | -19.1% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-23 | -1.06 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
There's plenty of homer intrigue tied to our three sluggers today, and especially Crow-Armstrong given the lopsided pitching matchup he faces amid the Sunday nightcap. McDonald also throws his changeup a little more to lefties like PCA, and it's getting tagged for a .750 slugging percentage.
The appeal of his matchup continues too once McDonald departs, as the Giants' bullpen sits 18th MLB-wide with a 4.27 ERA.
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