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Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies tags out Corbin Carroll #7 of the Arizona Diamondbacks as we make our Diamondbacks-Philles NLCS Game 7 prediction.
Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies tags out Corbin Carroll #7 of the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning in Game Three of the National League Championship Series at Chase Field on October 19, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images via AFP.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have pushed their NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies to Game 7, and we give our best Diamondbacks-Phillies prediction for the NLCS Game 7 based on the best MLB odds.

The Arizona Diamondbacks did what many predicted they could not do - win a game at Citizens Bank Park to force Game 7. The Philadelphia Phillies had been 6-0 at home in the postseason before Monday's 5-1 loss, outscoring opponents by a combined margin of 39-8.

The Phillies have never had a Game 7 in franchise history, while Arizona’s only Game 7 was a walk-off win in the 2001 World Series over the New York Yankees. Arizona is 3-1 all-time in winner-take-all games, while Philadelphia is 1-2. However, it's Philadelphia still getting more respect in the World Series odds.

True home teams are 62-64 all-time in winner-take-all postseason games, including Monday's ALCS Game 7, according to MLB’s Sarah Langs.  

Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction for Game 7 of the NLCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction: NLCS Game 7

Under 8.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Phillies are 28-12 all-time in the postseason at Citizens Bank Park, and that .700 winning percentage is the best of any team with a minimum of 20 games played at a stadium. But we are torn on the right side in this game, as teams that win Game 6 to force Game 7 have won the series 57% of the time (34-26), per Sarah Langs. Regardless, the total offers more value than either side of the moneyline, especially with how many different arms we expect to see out of the bullpen.

The Diamondbacks managed just three runs in 13 innings across two games against Zach Wheeler in this series, with nine hits and a 16-1 K:BB ratio. Why is that significant? Because while Wheeler has the best WHIP of any pitcher in postseason history (0.73), Suarez is not too far behind at 0.84 in 27 1/3 postseason innings. In addition, Suarez has the best postseason ERA (0.94) of any pitcher with a minimum of five starts (or a minimum of eight postseason appearances), per MLB’s Paul Casella.

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt has continued to impress on the big stage, pitching to a 2.13 ERA in three postseason starts with a 15:1 K:BB ratio despite many expecting him to implode. Pfaadt has had excellent command of the strike zone all season, ranking in the 82nd percentile in walk rate. He allowed an xwOBA of .297 and a .303 OBP since his July call-up before his Game 3 start, so he has been dealing for quite some time.

This is a three-star play, as Philadelphia could use Wheeler and even Cristopher Sanchez out of the bullpen, which would be wise considering the Phillies’ rotation ERA was an MLB postseason-best 1.48 through the first 11 games of a postseason. In addition, Arizona’s bullpen should have confidence after four relievers combined to allow three hits over four scoreless innings in Game 6.

Caesars

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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
8.58.58.58.58.5
Under (-118)Under (-120)Under (-115)Under (-110)Under (-115)

While our best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 8.5 runs, we save a decent bit of money making our wager on the Under at Caesars, the only sportsbook charging the standard -110 price on either side of the total. With the other four of our best sports betting sites heavily juiced to the Under, that indicates that oddsmakers may be close to lowering this number to 8, so we are eager to get the best number available at a great price while we can.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds analysis

BetMGM was the lone sportsbook to briefly dip to a total of 8 from an opening number of 8.5, but the line was bet back to 8.5 early Tuesday morning. The only other line movements thus far have been in the vig, as DraftKings has gone from -110 to -118 to back the Under, while Caesars has reached highs and lows of -120 to -105 before settling in at -110. Early wagers are 2/1 in favor of the Over (65/35 split). 

There is not much difference in the moneyline odds currently, as Philadelphia is as low as a -170 favorite at bet365, while Caesars is on the high end at -179. The line has moved significantly in Philadelphia’s favor, from -162 to -174 at FanDuel and from -155 to -175 at BetMGM. Sixty-three percent of the moneyline wagers have been placed on the Phillies.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies game info: NLCS Game 7

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 24 at 8:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SW

Diamondbacks-Phillies pick made 10/24/2023 at 6:35 a.m. ET.

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For the fourth time in MLB postseason history, both LCSs have gone seven games, and we give our best prediction for the NLCS Game 7 between the Diamondbacks and Phillies based on the best MLB odds.