The Arizona Diamondbacks have their backs against the wall while trailing the Philadelphia Phillies 2-3 in the 2023 NLCS, and we're making our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction for Game 6 of the NLCS based on the best MLB odds with Game 6 taking place at Citizens Bank Park on Monday.
The Philadelphia Phillies secured their first road win of the NLCS with a convincing 6-1 victory on Saturday night, giving them a 3-2 series lead as they look to secure a second straight trip to the World Series. They are now returning home to Citizens Bank Park, where their postseason record stands at a perfect 6-0, and they have outscored their opponents by a combined 39-6.
Unsurprisingly the Phillies stand as the favorites in our look-ahead to the World Series odds.
Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction for Game 6 of the NLCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Phillies -1.5 (+122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The way Phillies righty Aaron Nola has pitched this postseason has been much more like what earned him a top-four spot in the 2023 Cy Young voting, rather than the pitcher who had a career-worst HR/9 rate (1.5) and career-low K/9 rate (9.4) in the regular season.
In three postseason starts this year, Nola has recorded 19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings, with just two earned runs and two walks allowed. His 0.96 ERA in those starts is a big reason the Phillies' rotation has collectively pitched to a 1.48 ERA, the lowest by any team's starters through the first 11 games of a postseason, per MLB.com's Sarah Langs.
Despite a down year by Nola's standards, he's still accrued the fourth-most WAR (per FanGraphs) over the last three seasons, which is more than even this year's likely AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole. Nola has also been lights-out in Philadelphia's last four series-clinching games over the previous two seasons, allowing just one earned run in 27 combined innings.
Philadelphia has hit 10 home runs in the NLCS, but its power was somewhat suppressed in the pitcher-friendly Chase Field over the last three games. However, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto all homered in Game 5, and they should carry that momentum back home, where the Phillies have combined for 17 home runs in six postseason home games.
Realmuto's home run is Philadelphia’s only one of the series with runners on base, so the Phillies should blow Game 6 open with more success power-wise with runners on base.
This is a four-star play, as Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly ranks much worse in Stuff+ (87) and Pitching+ (103) than Nola (101 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+). In addition, Kelly entered Game 2 allowing a .795 OPS to current Phillies hitters, and the deep lineup tagged him for four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, while Kelly's troubling walk rate (it was up from 7.6% to 9.4% this season) manifested yet again with three walks in that last road start.
Don't miss our Andrew Brennan's Rangers vs. Astros prediction for Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday.
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies best odds
FanDuel offers the best odds for those looking to back the Phillies on the run line, as there is a significant gap between its +122 odds and our other best sports betting sites on the low end at +115.
Considering Philadelphia has a plus-33 run differential through six home playoff games, including a 10-0 victory in Game 2 with this same starting pitching matchup, we would not put anyone off its alternate run line. You can get +190 odds at -2.5 runs and +285 laying -3.5 runs at FanDuel.
Philadelphia's moneyline odds range from a low of -168 at FanDuel to a high of -189 at Caesars. Odds have moved significantly in the Phillies' favor at BetMGM, rising from -165 to -175 within an hour of its opening on Saturday night. Roughly 76% of the early moneyline wagers have backed the Phillies, as they are 12-1 in their last 13 games at Citizens Bank Park dating back to the regular season.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 8 runs. However, despite the identical totals, FanDuel has the Under juiced to -122, while DraftKings' odds to back the Under are -108. The Over has cashed in eight of Philadelphia's last nine home games against NL West opponents. To little surprise, the Over has drawn 70% of the betting action as of Monday morning.
- When: Monday, Oct. 23 at 5:07 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- How to watch: TBS
- Weather: 61 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
Diamondbacks-Phillies pick made 10/22/2023 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
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