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Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a single as we look at our Diamondbacks-Phillies predictions for Game 1
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a single in the third inning against the Atlanta Braves during Game Four of the Division Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 12, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images via AFP.

The NLCS between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies begins on Monday, and we have our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction based on the best MLB odds. Will the Phillies' home dominance continue or can the Diamondbacks stay undefeated in the postseason?

The Philadelphia Phillies overcame a disappointing end to Game 2 of the NLDS with two straight wins in Philadelphia to take down the Atlanta Braves. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have yet to lose a game this postseason after sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers.

With plenty of time between the end of the NLDS and the start of this series for both teams, the Phillies are deploying ace right-hander Zack Wheeler while the Diamondbacks counter with RHP Zac Gallen in Monday's NLCS Game 1.

Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction for Game 1 of the NLCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction: NLCS Game 1

Bryce Harper Over 0.5 runs (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bryce Harper is among MLB's premier players, and he’s proven that with his playoff performance over the past two years.

Harper has reached base in all six games so far this postseason with at least one run scored in five of those contests. Last year, Harper scored a run in nine of the Phillies' 11 playoff games leading up to the World Series.

In total, Harper is batting .354 with a 1.216 OPS over the last two postseasons. He's scored 19 runs in 23 games.

Harper is the heart and soul of this Phillies team. He’s getting on base and coming around to score—or hitting himself in—at a great rate. Even against an ace like Zac Gallen, who Harper is 4-for-12 against in his career, this is a great price for Harper to score a run at +110.


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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies best odds

Bryce Harper Over 0.5 runs (+110 via DraftKings)

Harper Over 0.5 runsHarper Over 0.5 runsHarper Over 0.5 runsHarper Over 0.5 runsHarper Over 0.5 runs

The Phillies have one of the best home-field advantages in all of baseball. They've won all four home games this postseason and went 6-2 last year with both losses coming in the World Series.

FanDuel is offering the best odds on a Phillies win at -162.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds analysis

The line has moved heavily in the direction of the Phillies after they opened as high as -145 and -155 at some books. They're now as low as -175, and it makes sense given the hype around this team. 

The total has remained at 7.5 since opening although some action has come in on the Over 7.5 to move it to -105 from even money.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies game info: NLCS Game 1

  • When: Monday, Oct. 16, 8:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Weather: 54 degrees, 7 mph NW winds, 14% chance of precipitation

Diamondbacks-Phillies pick made 10/15/2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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