Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 10)
Trading at (yes) 71 cents, the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers win probability from our prediction market apps are favoring Los Angeles heavily tonight with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. But which side should you invest in prior to first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET? Let's dive in.
💡 NOTE: OHTANI SCRATCHED FROM START
This article was written prior to Ohtani being scratched from his start, he'll be the Dodgers' designated hitter tonight.
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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability
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The Dodgers are unsurprisingly the mammoth favorites amid nearly $255,000 in trading, with Shohei Ohtani nearly untouchable on the mound.
He's posting a career-best 1.72 ERA at midseason, and squaring up his fastball happens almost never. Opposing hitters are posting just a .193 batting average against his four-seamer, according to Baseball Savant. And needing to prepare for that 97.9-mph heat makes Ohtani's sweeper that much more threatening. It's an even more dangerous offering while coming with a mere .176 slugging percentage allowed.
Ohtani is still recording plenty of strikeouts with his 10.0 K/9. But that's down from 11.9 last year because he's been more economical with his approach. His ground ball rate has risen from 41.0 last year to 51.2 now.
My prediction: Dodgers win. Eduardo Rodriguez as been impressing this season too, though he's due for significant regression, with his expected ERA of 5.01 sitting far higher than the hurler's actual mark of 2.25.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 28% |
| Ketel Marte | 20% |
| Freddie Freeman | 18% |
| Mookie Betts | 17% |
| Corbin Carroll | 16% |
My prediction: Freddie Freeman to hit a home run.
Trading at 18 cents, Freeman is providing the best investment tonight in this specific matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. The Canadian is 10-for-20 against the righty in his career with three extra-base hits and a home run. Sitting with a .546 xSLG against Rodriguez, he's an incredible pick to go yard tonight. Don't miss out.
For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today to get you ready for the weekend.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers ?
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The top Dodgers hitters have absolutely raked against Rodriguez. Ohtani (.353 xBA), Teoscar Hernandez (.357), Freeman, and Betts (.276 xBA) all show tremendous promise to scrape a run across the board in the first inning. Let's cash this one together, which sits at a 50/50 chance, according to Kalshi.
For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | 30% | 25% | ↑ 5% |
| Dodgers | 70% | 75% | ↓ 5% |
📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
- Date: Friday, July 10
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodgers Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: Channel
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Diamondbacks starter: Eduardo Rodriguez (7-3, 2.25 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Shohei Ohtani (8-2, 1.79 ERA)
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