MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, July 10

I'm looking to end the week strong in my home run predictions today, and there's no better way to do that than targeting a former ace who's struggling significantly to find his post-injury form.

That's the Blue Jays' Shane Bieber, who comes with an astronomical 4.2 HR/9 over his three starts this season. His descent is happening alongside the ascent of Manny Machado, who's been catching fire lately and will face Bieber tonight.

Machado leads my MLB home run picks that also feature Sal Stewart and Nick Kurtz.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 10

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Home run pick: Manny Machado (+380)

Bieber is no longer overpowering due to repeated injuries, and he needs to rely on finesse and command. The latter has been woefully absent three starts into his season.

He's been napalmed repeatedly, giving up six homers across just 13 innings. The pitch that's really causing him problems is his slider, which used to be a key weapon. Opposing batters are slugging 1.571 against it.

Keep capitalizing until Bieber adjusts. And do it today through Manny Machado, who has awoken from his slumber in a massive way with a 1.048 OPS and five homers over the past two weeks.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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Home run pick: Sal Stewart (+340)

The Chicago Cubs' Shota Imanaga is essentially a two-pitch hurler when the southpaw faces a righty, relying heavily on a fastball-splitter combo.

It's an approach that works fine right up until it absolutely doesn't. Righties being able to lay off anything low when his splitter isn't working well has contributed to Imanaga's homer allowed total sitting at 21, tied for the third-most leaguewide.

His barrel rate given up also sits in just the 13th percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and he's not well-positioned to limit damage from Sal Stewart, the MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender who's clubbed 19 homers and is posting an .899 OPS against lefties.

Stewart is excelling against both four-seamers and splitters, slugging .721 against the former and .556 when facing the latter.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+315)

Similar to Imanaga, Sean Burke of the Chicago White Sox features a two-pitch strategy against lefties while leaning on his fastball and then a curveball to keep hitters honest. That's been working well for him, as he's holding lefties to a .230 batting average.

But Nick Kurtz is very much not your typical lefty. His underlying power metrics are all glistening, most notably a towering hard-hit rate of 58.3% that's fourth MLB-wide. Much of his success comes from top-tier plate discipline and 99th-percentile bat speed (78.3 mph).

That daunting combination of pitch recognition and power allows him to hone in on fastballs, and he's putting up a blister 70.9% hard-hit rate against a pitch that Burke throws 40% of the time to lefties.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.