Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, July 9
🤑 Best NRFI Bets Today for Thursday (July 9)
We're 4-2 this week and trying to keep up that momentum. Today, I'm looking to a smouldering Seattle starter while taking Mariners vs. Marlins, and leaning on an impressive youngster in Brewers vs. Cardinals with our best NRFI bets today.
βΎ Best NRFI bets today: Thursday, July 9
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ NRFI pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mariners vs. Marlins NRFI (--130 via DraftKings) | 1u β 0.77u | Bryce Miller boasts a 1.71 ERA over eight starts. |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals NRFI (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u β 0.87u | Logan Henderson has been impressive while regularly stifling hard contact. |
Total wagered: 2.0 units | Max profit: 1.64 units
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π° Best NRFI bets today (Thursday, July 9)
Mariners vs. Marlins (-130) - 6:40 ET
- Bryce Miller (1.71) vs. Janson Junk (4.80)
- NRFI records: Mariners (46-47) vs. Marlins (46-47)
The Mariners are trotting out Bryce Miller tonight, who's been brilliant. He's allowed more than two earned runs just once across nine appearances, which includes four shutouts, the most recent of which came last time out when he threw seven innings of two-hit ball.
Miller allows few free base runners while posting one of the league's best walk rates at just 2.7%. Just as impressively, his 27.5% hard-hit rate given up is the eighth-best leaguewide.
Then there's the Mariners' offense, which ranks 24th in MLB. Cal Raleigh's plunge remains startling, and his expected batting average is the second-worst in the league.
💣️ More MLB player props for Thursday
Dive into my best home run predictions today if you're looking to cash in more on Thursday.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (-115) - 7:45 p.m. ET
- Logan Henderson (2.74) vs. Andre Pallante (3.60)
- NRFI records: Brewers (44-48) vs. Cardinals (48-43)
The sample size with the Brewers' prized young pitcher Logan Henderson is limited after just five starts, one of which lasted only two innings. But he's been shining nonetheless, and much like Miller, his ability to significantly suppress loud contact is highly appealing here.
His hard-hit rate allowed rests at only 29.6%, according to Baseball Savant, largely due to a fastball with major movement. Opposing hitters are registering just a .250 slugging percentage against his heater, and only a .276 when facing his changeup.
The Brewers' offense is imposing, but Andre Pallante's slider-sinker combo to righties makes him a groundball master. His 54.6% groundball rate sits in the 93rd percentile leaguewide.
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 57-160-2 | -2.21 units β | -2.7% β |
| NRFI picks | 2-0-0 | +1.79 units β | 89.5% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NRFI picks today (July 9)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet carries high variance, meaning success requires a disciplined, daily dive into the data. Before placing a wager, run through a strict checklist: analyze how the starting pitcher matches up against the top three hitters in the lineup, track underlying metrics like strikeout rates (K%) and expected batting averages (xBA), and review recent team-specific first-inning scoring trends. Because a single mistake or lucky hit can ruin the bet instantly, always use this daily routine to guide your wagers and scale your unit sizing accordingly to protect your bankroll.
β NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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