MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Thursday, July 9

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for today's MLB slate.
Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrates a home run, and he's feature in my home run predictions today.
Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrates a home run, and he's feature in my home run predictions today. Photo by Eric Hartline / Imagn.
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After a mere one day going dinger-less in my home run predictions today, Pete Alonso put us back on the board last night.

Now we're looking to a few lefty ball-launchers, with Bryce Harper leading the way in my MLB home run picks while set to get cozy in the always friendly confines of Great American Ball Park.

I'm also leaning on Mike Trout, who gets a pristine matchup just after returning from the IL.


⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 9

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

πŸ’£ Home run pick πŸ’΅ Units πŸ“ Notes
Bryce Harper home run (+258 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.52u Is crushing righties as usual, putting up a 1.022 OPS.
Mike Trout home run (+366 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.73u Clubbed a homer in his return from the IL last night.
Kerry Carpenter home run (+448 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.87u Gets the ideal chance to keep clobbering changeups.

Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.12 units

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πŸ’£ Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+258)

Bryce Harper has made a career out mashing righties, which he's doing again this season to the tune of a 1.022 OPS. And tonight he gets an exceptionally homer-friendly righty at a ballpark where dingers blossom.

The Reds' Brady Singer is putting up easily a career-worst 2.2 HR.9. His previous high was 1.1, and he's arrived at that mark while being tied for the fifth-most long balls allowed leaguewide (20). It doesn't help that his home ballpark is a launchpad, as Statcast's BallPark Factors rates Great American Ballpark as the second-most homer-friendly venue for lefty hitters.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: Room for more?

Harper's expected slugging percentage of .530 is the 12th-best leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant, and it's a fair bit higher than his actual mark of .509.


πŸ”₯ More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Mike Trout (+366)

Nathan Eovaldi is finally beginning to look like a 36-year-old with a whole lot of mileage on his arm. His HR/9 has spiked from just 0.7 last year to 1.6 now, which is the product of giving up 19 dingers already after permitting only 10 during the entire previous campaign.

Many of the metrics tied to power allowed are merely pedestrian, whereas he was comfortably above average last year in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. That makes him an ideal opponent for Mike Trout to ease back in against after a three-week IL stint.

Trout doesn't need much of that really, as he went deep last night. He still sits fifth leaguewide in barrels per plate appearance (11.5) and expected slugging (.568).

  • Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Kerry Carpenter (+448)

The Athletics will use Jose Suarez as an opener tonight against the Detroit Tigers. But he'll likely turn the ball over early on to Jack Perkins, the vulnerable righty who was originally slated to start but will now be used in a bulk relief role.

Perkins has been charitable with his homers allowed over the past month, giving up seven across his last six starts. That's contributed greatly to a 7.71 ERA over that period and an .843 OPS allowed.

Which leads to a tasty opportunity for another lefty slugger in Kerry Carpenter. His hard-hit rate rests in the 87th percentile. He's also a lefty who isn't susceptible to the changeup, as Carpenter is slugging .840 against that pitch. It's an offering Perkins throws 26% of the time to lefties.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

πŸš€ Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

  • Bryce Harper home run (+258)
  • Mike Trout home run (+366)
  • Kerry Carpenter home run (+448)

Best odds: +9042 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.8u)


πŸ’΅ My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.

Bet type Record Net profit ROI
Overall 57-160-2 -2.21 units βŒ -2.7% βŒ
Home run picks 33-104-0 +1.19 units βœ… 0.04% βœ…
HR Parlays 1-38 +0.68 units βœ… +1.03% βœ