Mariners vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 10

My Mariners vs. Rays prediction backs the home favorites, with one of its All-Star sluggers a great value play to go deep. I also back a Seattle slugger to drive in a run with the last of my MLB picks before the All-Star break despite its offense struggling of late.

⚾ Mariners vs. Rays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.27 units

🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Rays?

Seattle has been an abysmal road team of late, and is a rightful underdog against the best home team in the Majors. I'm backing the Rays to take this series opener.

Score prediction: Rays 5, Mariners 4

💰 Mariners vs. Rays prediction & best bet

Rays ML (-115)

After going just 41-40 as tenants of Steinbrenner Field last year, Tampa Bay is an MLB-best 33-14 at home back at Tropicana Field. It faces a Mariners team has lost 11 of their last 14 road games, while averaging just 3.3 runs per game over that span.

Nick Martinez ranks ninth in the American League in ERA since April 26 (min. 10 games started). And prior to yesterday’s loss to the Yankees, the Rays were 10-3 since June 25, while averaging 5.2 runs, batting .321, belting 24 home runs, and logging a plus-34 run differential.

🔥 Best Mariners vs. Rays player prop bet

Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 RBI (+162)

Cal Raleigh is destined to finish well short of the ridiculous 60 home runs he hit last season, but he has started to heat up from an RBI perspective. After driving in 21 runs over the first 53 games, he has eight over the last nine.

Raleigh is 2-for-6 with a home run in a small sample size against Nick Martinez. But he also figures to bat with traffic on the basepaths often, as J.P. Crawford (3-for-6) and Randy Arozarena (2-for-2) have also had success among those that bat before him against the righty.

For all of his struggles, Raleigh still ranks in the top quarter of the league in bat speed and barrels, and he is in his better split as a switch hitter with better slash line numbers across the board against right-handed pitchers than southpaws.

Stay on DraftKings for the best price on Walker's player prop at -104 odds.

💣 Mariners vs. Rays home run prediction

Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+710)

Yandy Diaz has only batted .214 in 14 career at-bats against Luis Castillo, but one of his three hits was a home run. He just recently passed Aubrey Huff for the fifth-most RBI in franchise history, and has a great chance to take Castillo deep for the second time in his career, especially off of one of his secondary pitches.

Castillo throws a fastball 44.1% of the time this season, and has allowed an alarming .445 slugging percentage and 49.5% hard-hit rate off that pitch. But if Castillo is to turn to his slider, sinker, or changeup, that is dangerous against Diaz, who has the third-highest slugging percentage (.736) against non-fastballs since May 30 (min. 30 PA).

🚀 Mariners vs. Rays same-game parlay

With the exception of the Raleigh RBI wager, the other player prop wagers involved in this same-game parlay pairs nicely to help Tampa Bay's chances of winning outright. I didn't want to change my Raleigh play for something safer like him to record a hit because of his paltry .168 batting average, even though Seattle is 7-1 in the last eight games he has driven in at least one run. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Mariners vs. Rays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I was all set to play Tampa Bay's -1.5 runline odds given the lopsided difference between its stellar home record and Seattle's poor play on the road of late. But since oddsmakers made this game closer to a pick'em than I expected, I had little issue backing the Rays to win outright. After all, the Mariners are just 1-4 in Castillo's last five games pitched, being out-scored 22-12 in the process.

📊 Live Mariners vs. Rays odds

The lopsided betting splits in Tampa Bay's favor have clearly influenced oddsmakers at the top MLB betting sites. While this game started as a pick'em at most placed, the Rays receiving 76% of the early wagers has moved the line in their favor, with them as high as -127 favorites (carrying a 55.95% implied probability) at bet365.

Though early wagers on the total are more evenly split (55/45 in favor of the Over), the line has ticked up from an opening number of 7.5 to 8, and has even reached 8.5 at bet365. That suggests sharp action makes up a decent amount of the initial 55% of bets to this point.

For more game picks on Friday, head over to our Braves vs. Cardinals prediction.

📈 Mariners vs. Rays betting trends

🚑 Mariners vs. Rays injuries

📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Rays

• Date: Friday, July 10
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mariners starter: Luis Castillo (3-7, 4.79 ERA)
• Rays starter: Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.61 ERA)