How to Bet Chase Burns in MLB Debut vs. Yankees: Best Player Props & Predictions Tonight
The (not so long) wait is over for Cincinnati Reds pitcher Chase Burns, who makes his highly anticipated MLB debut tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET against the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
We focused on Burns in our Yankees vs. Reds prediction, but we're diving even deeper into the rookie's player props ahead of his MLB debut. Below, we offer a Chase Burns scouting report and break down our best bets for the Reds pitcher, along with his most compelling prop markets for tonight's debut.
📝 Chase Burns scouting report
- Fastball: 97-100 MPH
- Slider: 87-88 MPH
- Curveball: 80-84 MPH
- Changeup: 90-92 MPH
Burns was selected No. 2 overall in the 2024 MLB draft in part because of his blistering fastball, which features elite velocity and shape from a unique release point that would be the highest in MLB among those sitting 95-plus MPH.
Yet his best pitch might be his devastating slider, which generated a 64% whiff rate in his final collegiate season last year and a 50% miss rate this year across 66 innings in the minor leagues. Those two pitches, paired with above-average control, tease ace upside for the 22-year-old righty.
⬇️ Keep reading for our best Chase Burns player props and odds markets.
⚾ Best Chase Burn player prop picks & predictions tonight
🔎 Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best MLB odds to make your best MLB picks.
- Chase Burns Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chase Burns Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔥 Chase Burns Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
📊 Best odds: -113 via Caesars
🔢 Implied probability: 53.05%
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I wrote up my full logic on this bet in my Yankees vs. Reds preview, so I won't spend too much time here. But here's the gist: even the best pitchers in baseball would have a tough time debuting against this New York lineup.
The Yankees are near or at the very top of virtually every advanced hitting metric, and they should have no issue belting one over the short fence at Great American Ball Park if Burns attacks the zone - which, given his electric stuff and limited time in the minors, feels likely to happen once or twice tonight.
🔥 Chase Burns Over 5.5 strikeouts
📊 Best odds: +130 via bet365
🔢 Implied probability: 43.48%
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Even though I'm pessimistic about Burns escaping his debut unscathed, I do expect the Reds to give their rookie a long leash tonight to showcase his filthy arsenal and make the case for an extended spot in the rotation.
If he has the runway, I have no doubt he can miss bats with a high-90s fastball and a wipeout slider that he threw 35% of the time in his last Triple-A start. Given that this exact prop bet is dealing no better than +120 elsewhere, this is a legitimate value play at bet365 with a winning $10 bet returning a $13 profit.
💰 More Chase Burns odds & projections for MLB debut
In addition to traditional player props, FanDuel is also offering an extended menu of prop bets ahead of Burns' debut, including the speed of his first career pitch tonight against the Yankees.
⚡ Chase Burns velocity of first pitch
All bets will be settled based on the first pitch thrown by the listed starting pitcher. Velocity sourced from baseballsavant.mlb.com.
| Velocity | Betting odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 101 MPH or faster | +2000 | 4.76% |
| 100.0 - 100.9 MPH | +250 | 28.57% |
| 99.0 - 99.9 MPH | +240 | 29.41% |
| 98.9 MPH or slower | -110 | 52.38% |
There are only two bets I'd make in this market, and I'd genuinely recommend making both of them: 101 MPH or faster, or 98.9 MPH or slower.
I am legitimately shocked that we're catching -110 odds - the standard price for most player props - on Burns' first pitch to fall below 99 MPH. While the upper range of his fastball exceeds 100 MPH, he averaged 97.8 MPH across two Triple-A starts and never exceeded 100.5 MPH in his final start.
So, even if he throws a fastball for his first pitch, there's a solid chance it falls short of 99 MPH. And if he throws literally anything else, we're cashing this bet right away. Considering the hype around his heater, wouldn't you set the table with a breaking ball or offspeed pitch to catch the Yankees off guard?
That's why 98.9 MPH or slower is easily the best bet to make in this market. As for the other bet? I'd sprinkle a small wager on 101 MPH or faster for one reason: adrenaline. If he does open with a fastball, I would not be shocked if it's the fastest pitch he has ever thrown. At 20/1, it's worth a shot.
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💰 Chase Burns pitching specials
Here's a look at the rest of the unique prop bets offered at FanDuel ahead of Burns' MLB debut tonight, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET:
| Market | Betting odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns to record an immaculate inning in 1st inning | +50000 | 0.20% |
| Chase Burns to record 3+ strikeouts in 1st inning | +700 | 12.50% |
| Chase Burns to record out on first 6 batters | +410 | 19.61% |
| Chase Burns to record out on first 9 batters | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Chase Burns to throw no-hitter through 5 innings | +4200 | 2.33% |
| Chase Burns to record 11+ strikeouts | +4100 | 2.38% |
| Chase Burns to record 12+ strikeouts | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Chase Burns to record 13+ strikeouts | +21000 | 0.47% |
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💵 Best MLB betting sites
Want to bet on Chase Burns' MLB debut? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's MLB games:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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