⚾ Cardinals vs. Royals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 19

The Kansas City Royals put up a rare offensive eruption to win their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals last night in dominant fashion, earning the 14-6 rout.

Now it'll be Michael McGreevy vs. Seth Lugo beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight from Kauffman Stadium (Apple TV). The Cards enter as the marginal -120 favorites as I make my Cardinals vs. Royals prediction and MLB picks, which center around St. Louis being able to exploit Lugo's weaknesses.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Royals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.70 units | Max profit: 2.89 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Royals?

The Royals don't boast the offense to exploit McGreevy's weaknesses, especially with Witt likely out. There will be scoring, but not enough of a contribution from Kansas City for the Over to come into play, with St. Louis ultimately prevailing.

Score prediction: Cardinals 6, Royals 2

💰 Cardinals vs. Royals prediction & best bet

Under 9.5 (-122)

The severity of Bobby Witt Jr.'s knee injury is unknown, but at minimum he seems highly unlikely to be active tonight. That removes a core cog from an offense that was already scuffling while tied for 18th in run production. Remove Witt, and the Royals are left with a batter order featuring four hitters whose expected slugging percentage is .380 or below.

They don't boast the firepower to pounce on McGreevy. Yes, his expected ERA sits significantly higher than the hurler's actual mark (5.58 to 2.99). But he provides few free baserunners, with a walk rate in the 84th percentile.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Royals player prop bet

Jordan Walker Over 1.5 total bases (-113)

Both starters in this game seem certain to go down the regression hole at some point soon given their expected stats. Like McGreevy, Lugo's expected ERA is in another galaxy compared to the righty's actual one (5.30 to 3.86). 

He's getting punished each time out, but the negative results in terms of runs given up just aren't there. His expected slugging percentage allowed of .489 sits in the bottom 9% leaguewide, and his sinker, Lugo's most-used pitch that he throws 20.1% of the time, is getting rocked for a .672 expected slugging.

So we turn to Jordan Walker to pick on him. Walker is regularly doing massive damage with a hard-hit percentage that sits 12th overall MLB-wide at 53.4%, and that rises even higher to 58.7% when he gets a sinker.

💣 Cardinals vs. Royals home run prediction

Alec Burleson to hit a home run (+390)

Some of the same thinking for the Walker pick applies here, as Burleson comes with a hitting profile ideal for pummeling Lugo. His expected slugging stands out the most, as he sits eighth MLB-wide with a .553.

Lugo serves up a platter of breaking balls, one of which is a curveball he throws 19% of the time to lefties like Burleson. He's nailing that pitch while registering a .703 expected slugging.

Toss in that he destroys righties overall with a .993 OPS, and there's a lot to like about Burleson's outlook.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Royals same-game parlay

Fading Lugo's strikeout ability is the addition to give us a three-leg parlay to feel confident in tonight. His K/9 sits at 7.5, and it was as high as 11.7 earlier in his career.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Royals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Be sure to capitalize on the 9.5 for the total at FanDuel, as some of the other best MLB betting sites are sitting at 9. I raised my risk slightly with 1.5 units to compensate for the increased juice for the higher total.

Aside from that, I'm trusting in the Cardinals' power to get to Lugo, and the Royals to struggle to do their part to eclipse the total, especially without Witt.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Royals odds

Bettors seem divided on their outlook for this game. The Cardinals are getting 66% of the moneyline action through DraftKings, but there's a belief the Royals can keep it close, as they're receiving 69% of the attention to cover +1.5 on the run line.

There's also indecision regarding the total, with the Over getting the edge while garnering 55% of the attention. That bodes well for us, as the 9.5 totals out there could still remain in place with even action.

📈 Cardinals vs. Royals betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Royals injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Royals

• Date: Friday, June 19
• First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City)
• TV: Channel
• Streaming: Platform
• Cardinals starter: Michael McGreevy (3-5, 2.99 ERA)
• Royals starter: Seth Lugo (2-4, 3.86 ERA)