⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, June 19
The inferno keeps blazing around here after two more dinger hits last night, with Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. providing the fireworks. The latter was especially lucrative at +440 odds, and I'm now up 3.69 units across the past 10 days.
Let's dial up some more MLB home run picks in my home run predictions today while looking to keep cruising and head into the weekend with some fun money. And there's no better place to start today than with Zach Neto, who's solely focused on power while facing one of MLB's most homer-prone hurlers.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 19
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto home run (+290 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.58u | Jeffery Springs has allowed the second-most homers leaguewide. |
| Corbin Carroll home run (+529 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.1u | Has been thriving against lefties this season. |
| Pete Alonso home run (+334 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.67u | Roki Sasaki's fastball has been throttled a whole lot. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.35 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Zach Neto (+290)
Neto's approach is simple: hunt heat, sell out, repeat.
The bill comes due with his strikeouts, but that's worth it if the ball is sailing over the fence. Which it is with his 15 homers. He's doing that through a barrel rate that sits in the 82nd percentile, a .575 slugging percentage against four-seamers, and a career-best air pull rate of 29.9%.
He's hitting his pitch with authority, and that's the ideal profile against Jeffery Springs. He's given up the second-most homers leaguewide (19), which includes 11 across his last five starts, leading to an HR/9 of 2.2.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Heat heaven
Springs throws his mediocre fastball with a 10th percentile velocity to righties like Neto 44% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+529)
Carroll is a lefty slugger who doesn't flinch when facing same-sided pitching. In fact, he thrives against it, as Carroll is posting a 1.112 OPS this season against southpaws, and a .798 when facing a righty.
His batting average of .389 against lefties is also astronomically higher than Carroll's .217 against a righty. He'll get the matchup he desires tonight when the Minnesota Twins bring a lefty out to start in Connor Prielipp. The hurler attempts to navigate his way through lefties while leaning on his slider a whopping 42% of the time, an offering that Caroll is slugging .652 against with a .304 average.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and best strikeout props today.
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+334)
Roki Sasaki is fresh off getting pulverized for seven earned runs across 4 1/3 innings. What should be a strength is actually a weakness, and his fastball is getting demolished.
Sasaki boasts 91st-percentile velocity while averaging 97.4 mph on his heater. But too often that pitch is traveling in the other direction just as fast, with opposing batters posting an average exit velocity of 93.9 mph against it, contributing to a .571 slugging.
That could quickly lead to a tough time against Pete Alonso tonight, who's hard-hit rate of 55.1% sits seventh leaguewide. That rate rises even further against four-seamers while resting at 62.3%, and he's putting up a .707 expected slugging against fastballs.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
💣️ More Orioles-Dodgers picks
Our Mike Spector is eyeing another slugger to go deep in this game as part of his Orioles vs. Dodgers prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Zach Neto home run (+286)
- Corbin Carroll home run (+529)
- Pete Alonso home run (+334)
Best odds: +10437 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.1u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 46-133-2 | -1.87 units β | -2.8% β |
| Home run picks | 28-92-0 | -0.52 units β | 2.06% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-30 | 0.78 units β | 1.26% β |
Related Articles
