⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 9

The San Diego Padres face a familiar foe in St. Louis Cardinals righty Dustin May from his days pitching in the NL West, while the Padres look to win their first game of the four-game series when sending Randy Vasquez to the mound. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX), and the Padres are a -145 betting favorite.

My Cardinals vs. Padres prediction expects a low-scoring affair to kick off my MLB picks, amid a battle of two pitchers that have been extremely consistent recently. That means I’m buying low on a struggling San Diego slugger, but I am still relying on past history to back another one confidently to go yard.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.46 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Padres?

Dustin May has solid career numbers at Petco Park, and St. Louis’ 4-1 record in his last five starts inspires confidence that the Cardinals will win clinch a series victory tonight.

Score prediction: Cardinals 4, Padres 3

💰 Cardinals vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-108)

After a disastrous first two outings where he was tagged for 13 earned runs over 7 ⅓ innings, May has rebounded with four quality starts over his last five appearances, while pitching to 2.45 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB ratio.

May has a respectable 3.38 ERA in eight career appearances (five starts) at Petco Park, while his 1.010 WHIP there is his third-lowest at any visiting ballpark where he has appeared at least twice.

Since April 28 up to yesterday, San Diego ranked dead-last in BABIP and 27th in wRC+ amid a 3-6 stretch.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Padres player prop bet

Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 hits (+200)

Dustin May has allowed a .370/.433/.543 slash line to opposing left-handed batters this season. But this makes for a great value play on a slugger who hasn’t come anywhere close to the 1.053 OPS and seven home runs he produced over the final 20 games of last season.

Merrill’s power struggles are largely tied to his decline in launch angle sweet spot percentage from roughly 40% last year to 33% this year. But the more concerning things for Merrill going forward are his whiff rate (26.3%) and strikeout rate (23.3%) after he flashed solid contact skills as a rookie two seasons ago.

Merrill has more multi-hit games (three) than games where he’s gone hitless this month (one), but I’m expecting his .357 average so far in May to regress more to the .196 he produced in April.

💣 Cardinals vs. Padres home run prediction

Manny Machado to hit a home run (+610)

If we’re factoring in past head-to-head matchups in our home run analysis, it is hard to ignore Manny Machado’s splits against Dustin May. 

In 31 career at-bats, Machado has slashed .290/.333/.548 with two home runs off May. But the reason for this solid price is that May is allowing just a .360 slugging percentage to right-handed batters compared to a .543 slugging percentage against lefties.

I am undeterred by those splits and expect positive regression for Machado after turning in a 51.5% hard-hit rate last year (the second-best of his career). Machado has homered at least once in two of the last four series, and has a great chance to make it three of five tonight.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Padres same-game parlay

The Merrill wager works well in conjunction with me backing the full-game Under. And while I thought about swapping out the Machado RBI play given its contradictory nature, I kept it as the third leg of this same-game parlay since San Diego has scored five or fewer runs in five of the six games the slugger has produced exactly one RBI.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

There have been eight or fewer runs scored in each of May's last five starts. That is why I'm confidently backing the Under, and am not as worried that Vasquez's ERA at Petco Park is nearly two and a half runs higher than his ERA on the road.

Overall, backing the total is a better angle than playing either side's moneyline given how evenly matched the head-to-head series has been between these two teams since 2021.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Padres odds

The line has moved in San Diego's favor at our best sports betting sites, despite winning the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-1. 

The O/U has held firm at 8 runs at the best MLB betting sites, with the Over attracting the slight early betting support (54% of wagers). The Over carries less than the standard -110 juice (-105, 51.22% implied odds), which oddsmakers are hoping makes it a more attractive side after these two teams played two low-scoring affairs thus far.

📈 Cardinals vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Padres

• Date: Saturday, May 9
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cardinals starter: Dustin May (3-3, 5.15 ERA)
• Padres starter: Randy Vasquez (3-1, 3.20 ERA)