Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Picks & Odds: Will Philadelphia End Series in Game 4?
The Philadelphia Phillies will try to secure their ticket to the National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS, and our best Braves-Phillies prediction for Game 4 is based on the best MLB odds.
The Atlanta Braves won an MLB-best 104 games in the regular season and beat the Philadelphia Phillies eight times in 13 head-to-head meetings. However, all that will be for naught if they do not win Game 4 and send the series back to Atlanta for a decisive fifth game. They've already had their World Series odds worsen considerably.
These two teams have met in the postseason twice before this year, with the Phillies winning both encounters.
A date against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS awaits the series winner.
Here is our best Braves-Phillies prediction for Game 4 of the NLDS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Braves vs. Phillies prediction: NLDS Game 4
Phillies ML (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
When speaking about momentum in baseball, Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver once famously said, “Momentum is only as good as tomorrow’s starting pitcher.”
Atlanta starting pitcher Spencer Strider may be the ace of the staff, but he's walking into a house of horrors after getting lit up for five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in Game 3 of last year’s NLDS, which the Braves lost 9-1.
Philadelphia is 9-2 in its previous 11 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park, including beating the Braves by a combined 27-6 during that period, and its hot bats should carry into this game.
The Braves tied the major-league record with 307 home runs this season, but no team has hit more long balls since Aug. 1 than the Phillies. Philadelphia tied an MLB postseason record with six home runs on Wednesday, and Bryce Harper’s two homers in Game 3 gave him 10 career big flies in the NLDS, the most in history.
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Philadelphia is throwing No. 3 starter Ranger Suarez out there on Thursday, but, unlike Strider, who threw 94 pitches in Game 1, Suarez will be much more rested after throwing only 53.
The Phillies' bullpen backed Suarez up with 5 1/3 innings of four-hit scoreless baseball, and the pitching staff as a whole has a 1.64 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this postseason, so it will not be intimidated by Atlanta’s powerful lineup.
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Braves vs. Phillies best odds
bet365 (+130)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies ML | Phillies ML | Phillies ML | Phillies ML | Phillies ML |
| +130 | +130 | +125 | +130 | +130 |
Four of our five best sports betting apps offer the same +130 moneyline odds on the Phillies. Interestingly, though BetMGM is at only +125 on the ML, it has the same -130 odds as Caesars and bet365 to back the Phillies on the run line (+1.5), which will likely sway many bettors to opt for the extra run worth of insurance.
Braves vs. Phillies odds
Braves vs. Phillies odds analysis
FanDuel and DraftKings are the only two of our best sports betting sites with reported line movement thus far, and the moneyline has moved in the Phillies' direction.
FanDuel went from Braves -158/Phillies +134 to Braves -154/Phillies +130. At DraftKings, Philadelphia has shortened from +136 to +130 underdogs. Dating back to the regular season, the Phillies have won seven straight home games against NL East opponents.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 8.5 runs, and most are juiced to the Over (as high as -120 at BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings), while BetRivers is the only one with lower odds (-104) to back the Over. The Over is 7-1 in Atlanta's last eight road games.
Braves vs. Phillies game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:07 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- How to watch: TBS
- Weather: 73 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
Braves-Phillies pick made 10/12/2023 at 6:29 a.m. ET.
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