Blue Jays vs. Mariners Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 5)

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners wrap up their series with an intriguing pitching matchup between Trey Yesavage and George Kirby, as we break down our Blue Jays vs. Mariners win probability. Every win carries added significance entering the second half, making Sunday's contest one to watch. The prediction market apps currently favors Seattle, giving the Mariners have a 54% chance to win compared to Toronto's 46%, creating a notable 8-point probability gap. We'll break down what those percentages mean, where bettors may find value, and whether the market has this matchup priced correctly.

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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Mariners? Live MLB win probability

Kalshi's market gives the Mariners the edge entering Sunday's matchup, but there is value in backing the Blue Jays to pull the upset. While Seattle owns the higher win probability, Toronto has the offensive firepower to capitalize against George Kirby if he leaves pitches over the plate.

The Blue Jays' lineup is capable of generating quick scoring bursts, and one big inning could completely flip the game. Prediction markets reflect public expectations, not guaranteed outcomes, making Toronto an intriguing contrarian play. I'll take the Blue Jays to outperform the market and steal a valuable road victory.

My prediction: Blue Jays (46%) win. Toronto has the deeper lineup and enough power throughout the order to pressure Seattle's pitching staff from the opening inning. If the Blue Jays capitalize on early scoring opportunities and receive a solid outing from Trey Yesavage, they have a strong chance to outperform the market and secure the win.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Blue Jays vs. Mariners?

Kalshi's home run market highlights Seattle's biggest power threats entering Sunday's matchup. Cal Raleigh owns the highest probability to leave the yard at 20%, reflecting the season-long power that has made him one of the league's premier home run hitters.

Randy Arozarena ranks next among the top options at 14%, giving the Mariners another dangerous bat capable of changing the game with one swing. While Toronto features its own power, Kalshi's market suggests Seattle's sluggers are the most likely to go deep, making this an intriguing prop market to monitor.

My prediction: Randy Arozarena (14%) to hit a home run. Randy Arozarena has the combination of bat speed and pull-side power to capitalize on any mistake left over the heart of the plate. With Kalshi assigning him a 14% chance to homer, he stands out as one of the top power threats capable of changing the game with one swing.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Blue Jays vs. Mariners?

Kalshi's NRFI/YRFI market points to a competitive battle in the opening inning, but the value leans toward backing No Runs in the First Inning. Both starting pitchers have an opportunity to settle in early, and each lineup may take an inning to adjust before generating consistent offense. With the pressure of a pivotal American League matchup, expect a cautious approach from both sides out of the gate. While either lineup has enough power to produce an early run, NRFI offers the stronger angle based on the expected pitching duel and game flow..

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Both starting pitchers have the ability to attack the strike zone early and keep the opposing lineup from generating immediate offense. With each team likely taking a patient approach in the opening frame, No Runs in the First Inning is the stronger betting angle.

📊 Blue Jays vs. Mariners win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Mariners

• Date: Sunday, July 5
• First pitch: 5 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
• TV: Peacock
• Streaming: Peacock
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (4-3, 3.34 ERA)
• Mariners starter: Emerson Hancock (5-4, 3.47 ERA)