Padres vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 4)

LHP Wandy Peralta and RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto square off today in the third game of a four-game set as we break down the Padres vs. Dodgers win probability.

The Dodgers have a 69% win probability on prediction market apps, but I like the Padres to snap their seven-game losing skid. First pitch from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is set for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB.TV).

➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.

🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability

The Dodgers have a projected 69% win probability, and over $450,000 has already been traded in this market. Los Angeles originally opened at a 68.5% win probability on Thursday morning, peaked at 73% on Friday afternoon, and money has now come back in on San Diego as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Dodgers are available at 71¢, with over $500,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Dodgers improved to 58-31 after beating the Padres 4-3 in the second game of the set on Friday. Los Angeles' win probability was as low as 11.1%, per ESPN Analytics, trailing 3-0 in the middle of the seventh inning.

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez hit a go-ahead grand slam in the bottom of the inning, his first home run since missing most of June with a hamstring strain.

Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill hit a solo shot in the fourth inning to give San Diego a 2-0 lead and later scored on an RBI double by shortstop Xander Bogaerts in the sixth. The Padres' current seven-game skid includes four losses to the Dodgers. San Diego's last win was a 7-1 home victory over the Dodgers on June 26.

My prediction: Padres win (31¢). Padres RHP Griffin Canning will pitch in a bulk relief role today, and while he has been inconsistent, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five outings. Yamamoto gives the Dodgers the pitching edge, but the market is overreacting to the matchup, as if he hasn't allowed a total of five earned runs over his last two starts.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Padres vs. Dodgers?

Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani usually has the highest probability of hitting a home run when L.A. faces San Diego (typically between 25% and 31%). However, he's taking the night off to recover from biceps tightness, so shortstop Mookie Betts, first baseman Freddie Freeman, and Padres third baseman Manny Machado are the new favorites at 18%.

Fernando Tatis Jr., who has just five home runs this season, has the fourth-highest probability to homer at 16%, followed by Merrill at 13%. Merrill has homered in back-to-back games, first against Dodgers RHP Roki Sasaki and then against Ohtani. More than $17,000 in volume has cleared in this market.

My prediction: Manny Machado to hit a home run (18¢). While Machado is batting just .190, his power is still there, with a team-high 17 home runs on the season. Not only does he play better against the Dodgers - he has 13 homers against Los Angeles in the last 45 head-to-head meetings - but he's also had success against Yamamoto, slugging .588 in his career against the Dodgers righty. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Padres vs. Dodgers?

Over $7,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 52% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 52¢, you can instantly get over $80,000 filled.

The Padres have had a first-inning run scored in 36% of their games, while the Dodgers have seen a run in the first inning in 48% of theirs. Yamamoto hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his last three starts, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his three starts this season.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (49¢). The Padres are the most profitable NRFI team in MLB, while Yamamoto has been tough to hit early on in his starts recently. We played a similar matchup - Yamamoto vs. Padres LHP Kyle Hart - last Saturday, and neither team scored in the first inning. For more first-inning predictions, see the rest of our best NRFIs today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

📊 Padres vs. Dodgers win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Dodgers

• Date: Saturday, July 4
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: MLB.TV
• Padres opener: Wandy Peralta (1-1, 2.38 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-5, 2.67 ERA)