MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, July 4
The Fourth of July is celebrated with fireworks, and I offer a four-pack of MLB sluggers who will provide their own fireworks through my best home run predictions today.
No hitter has a higher OPS than Pete Crow-Armstrong over the last three weeks, and I expect him to go deep off of Cardinals righty Kyle Leahy, who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard on the road. I also add three other MLB home run picks on batters who have all hit multiple home runs off of today’s starting pitcher in Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, and Freddie Freeman.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 4
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.05u | Crow-Armstrong ranked in the top two of nearly every offensive category in June. |
| Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+404 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.01u | Pederson had five home runs in a six-game stretch last week. |
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+240 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.6u | Schwarber has slugged .842 in 19 career at-bats against Michael Wacha. |
| Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+464 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.16u | Freeman should extend his 17-game on-base streak with a home run. |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.82 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+420)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is one home run shy of his second straight 20/20 season. He's coming off a torrid June when PCA ranked in the top two in batting average and home runs, and led the league in on-base percentage, slugging, wRC+, and fWAR.
Crow-Armstrong enters this series with an MLB-best 1.292 OPS since June 11 (minimum 40 plate appearances). He now faces Leahy, who has allowed all nine of his home runs this season on the road across just 35 1/3 innings). He's given up multiple home runs in three of his seven road starts.
- Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
📡 SBR Edge: Homers in bunches
In Wednesday's 23-3 win over the Padres, the Cubs tied a franchise record with eight home runs, and scored their most runs at Wrigley Field since 1977.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Joc Pederson (+404)
Joc Pederson posted a stretch of five home runs in six games last week. One of those long balls was his 28th career leadoff home run, which left him two shy of Shohei Ohtani for the eighth-most among active players. It was also the first time Pederson homered in three consecutive games since June 2021.
Three of Pederson’s four extra-base hits off of Jack Flaherty have been homers, and he has a solid .304/.320/.739 slash line against the righty across 23 at-bats. Flaherty has allowed six of his eight dingers on the road in 10 fewer innings than at home, so I’m confidently backing Pederson even though Flaherty hasn’t given up a home run in 23 2/3 innings.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+240)
Kyle Schwarber remains the only MLB hitter with 30 home runs on the season, even though he's hit just one in the last 10 games entering this series opener. He gets a great chance to add to his total when facing Michael Wacha, whom Schwarber has taken deep three times in 19 at-bats.
Schwarber has taken an all-or-nothing approach in his head-to-head matchups with Wacha while totaling a 1.277 OPS, though seven of his 13 outs have been strikeouts. Wacha is due for regression from his 0.8 HR/9 rate, especially since the .475 expected slugging against his fastball is much worse than the hurler's actual .359 slugging percentage allowed against the pitch.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+464)
Freddie Freeman extended his on-base streak to 18 games during Los Angeles’ 4-3 comeback win yesterday. He batted .371 with nine extra-base hits, 12 runs scored, and 12 walks during the first 17 games.
Freeman has been a model of consistency as one of three active players with at least 12 seasons featuring 20-plus home runs. He's logged two hits in 11 career at-bats against Padres righty Griffin Canning, but both have been home runs, making for a .727 slugging percentage.
Canning has allowed all eight of his home runs to left-handed batters, and his .578 slugging percentage allowed in that split is more than double what he's given up to righties (.286).
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+412)
- Joc Pederson to hit a home run (+404)
- Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+247)
- Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+464)
Best odds: +50402 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 50.4u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
