Twins vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, July 4
This early Fourth of July first pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 1:35 p.m. ET, and it features a starting pitching matchup between Zebby Matthews and Brendan Beck. The Yankees are -160 betting favorites despite losing seven of their last eight games.
My Twins vs. Yankees prediction backs the Under as Minnesota rolls with an unknown pitcher. But given the sweltering heat forecasted in the Bronx today, I'm expecting a low strikeout total from Matthews. I'm also backing a Yankees slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.
⚾ Twins vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.87u | The Yankees scored 17 runs over a seven-game losing streak. |
| Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 strikeouts (-138 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.73u | Sell high on Matthews' seven strikeouts in his last start with this game being played in brutal weather conditions. |
| Ben Rice to hit a home run (+209 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.52u | Rice has logged four hits and a home run in six at-bats against Matthews. |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.12 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Yankees?
The Yankees have long dominated the Twins since the turn of the century, and I don't see that changing this afternoon just because of a last-minute switch from Carlos Rodon to Brendan Beck on the mound.
Score prediction: Yankees 5, Twins 4
💰 Twins vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Under 10 (-115)
Minnesota didn't get much time to prepare for the sudden change in the Yankees' pitching plans from Carlos Rodon to Brendan Beck. And this is a more confident wager if Byron Buxton misses a second straight game (hip).
Meanwhile, New York’s bats went cold during a seven-game losing streak entering this series. Its biggest hitters struggled, like Cody Bellinger (1-for-23), Paul Goldschmidt (2-for-20), Ben Rice (2-for-25), Jasson Dominguez (4-for-24), Anthony Volpe (3-for-21), and Jazz Chisholm (3-for-16), and none of those sluggers recorded more than one extra-base hit.
Additionally, the Yankees went a collective 6-for-39 with runners in scoring position.
📡 SBR Edge: Head-to-head dominance
The Yankees are 119-53 against the Twins since 2000, and they're an even better 48-18 against them since 2015.
🔥 Best Twins vs. Yankees player prop bet
Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 strikeouts (-138)
Zebby Matthews is coming off his seventh quality start of the season, and he also tied a season-high with seven strikeouts. He's been prone to the occasional blow-up though, with 14 earned runs allowed over 101/3 innings in his other two starts this season.
While Matthews has posted a better K/9 rate on the road than at home this season, his ceiling for innings pitched is much lower since his ERA is 3.85 runs higher in that split.
New York entered this series with the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (25.2%). But this wager is almost exclusively weather-related, as 100-degree heat should force Twins manager Derek Shelton to remove Matthews earlier than he'd like.
💣 Twins vs. Yankees home run prediction
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+209)
In Rice’s 20 games entering yesterday’s series opener since Aaron Judge went on the IL, he slashed just .200/.288/.381. One of his latest stretches from June 22-28 was particularly bad, as he produced MLB’s worst fWAR (minus-0.5) and a minus-70 wRC+.
If any matchup can get Rice out of his slump, it is one with Matthews, against whom he's 4-for-6 with a home run. Matthews has allowed eight of his 11 home runs away from home in just 4 1/3innings more than his home starts.
Matthews combines a 22nd-percentile ground ball rate with a fifth-percentile barrel rate, and each of those plays well for left-handed hitters looking to attack Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field.
🚀 Twins vs. Yankees same-game parlay
Given that I like Matthews to stay Under his strikeout total, I'm changing the first leg of this same-game parlay from the full game to the first five innings Under, and taking relievers out of the equation. Rice to homer would also contradict my play on the Under, so I'm simply backing him to record a hit.
💵 Twins vs. Yankees SGP picks
- First five innings Under 5.5 (-118)
- Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
- Ben Rice to record 1+ hit (-330)
Best odds: +301 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 44-29 | +10.52 units ✅ | +5.8% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Twins vs. Yankees: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Minnesota's bullpen ranks 28th in FIP and dead-last in ERA, so I wouldn't put anyone off limiting their play on the Under to the first five innings rather than the full game, as I did with my same-game parlay. But I'm merely backing the extended slump that most of the Yankees' lineup is in right now. However, I'm stopping short of wagering on the Twins' moneyline given New York's success against them for more than a decade.
📊 Live Twins vs. Yankees odds
The best MLB betting sites were given all day yesterday to react to the news that Rodon was being placed on the IL. However, the line has still moved in Minnesota's favor as much as five cents, despite the Yankees receiving 59% of the moneyline wagers.
The total ticked up at Caesars from an opening number of 9.5 to 10, and it experienced the same movement at bet365 before returning to 9.5. That makes the latter alone among the best sports betting sites while offering an O/U of 9.5 (FanDuel briefly dipped to 9.5 but returned to its opening number of 10).
📈 Twins vs. Yankees betting trends
| Twins | Statistic | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| 42-47 | W-L record | 49-38 |
| 47-42 | Run line record | 41-46 |
| 56-32-1 | O/U record | 39-45-3 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 4.83 | Team ERA | 3.34 |
| .246 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .732 | OPS | .740 |
🚑 Twins vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Twins vs. Yankees
- Date: Saturday, July 4
- First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Twins starter: Zebby Matthews (4-5, 4.15 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Brendan Beck (0-0, 6.00 ERA)
Related Articles
