Mets vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, July 4
An NL East rivalry continues on Saturday night, and I'm breaking it down in my Mets vs. Braves prediction. It's Sean Manaea vs. Chris Sale, with the Braves' veteran ace sporting a 2.10 ERA.
My MLB picks include a total, two player props, and a same-game parlay. Catch the first pitch at 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX and streaming on MLB.TV from Truist Park (Atlanta), with the Braves valued as heavy -174 betting favorites.
⚾ Mets vs. Braves picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 (-122 via FanDuel) | 1.22u → 1u | The Under has cashed in 13 of last 16 games combined for these teams. |
| Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts (-138 via FanDuel) | 1.38u → 1u | Sale has gone under 7.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. |
| Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+500 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.25u | Albies has mashed two home runs in last three starts. |
Total wagered: 2.85 units | Max profit: 3.25 units
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🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Braves?
Sale holds a big edge over Manaea on the mound tonight. Atlanta's veteran southpaw has allowed three total runs across his last three starts.
Both teams have been in a slump lately, although the Braves are hitting significantly better this season. Coming off a 5-3 win on Friday should keep momentum rolling into a similar outcome on America's birthday.
The Braves take Saturday's game to log a third win in their last four starts.
Score prediction: Braves 5, Mets 2
💰 Mets vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Under 8.5 (-122)
Chris Sale's presence is the main reason I'm bullish on Under 8.5 runs today. It's hit in six of the Mets' last eight games.
The Mets field a bottom-five lineup in terms of batting average (.230) this year. Now they'll face Sale, who has held four of his past five opponents to two or fewer earned runs.
Meanwhile, Manaea isn't a total bust, also limiting four of his past five opponents to two earned runs.
Go to FanDuel for the best number on this run total and bet under 8.5 at -122 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Sale Away
Chris Sale ranks in the 98th percentile for pitching run value (17) this season. He's allowing a .227 batting average and does well at limiting hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Sale will limit the Mets' lineup enough to cash the run total Under.
🔥 Best Mets vs. Braves player prop bet
Chris Sale Under 7.5 strikeouts (-138)
After spending a lot of this analysis hyping up Sale, I'm going to fade his total strikeouts prop. At 7.5, this number is a bit too high, as Sale has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts.
The Mets rank 15th in strikeouts per game this season (8.31), so they're just an average strikeout lineup. Sale punched out 10 in his last start and ranks 91st in strikeout rate (29.6) this season, so this could wind up being a sweat.
With Sale going under 7.5 strikeouts in eight of 15 starts, let's lay the juice and fade his total strikeouts prop. Bet under 7.5 strikeouts at -138 odds on FanDuel.
💣 Mets vs. Braves home run prediction
Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+500)
Ozzie Albies is trending up at the plate after mashing two home runs across his last three starts. The second baseman has tallied 14 home runs this season, making him one of four players in the Braves' lineup to log double-digit bombs.
Albies' squared-up rate sits in the 88th percentile (30.8), leading to strong contact and more balls in play. Manaea is only average in barrel rate (7.0) and hard-hit rate (38.5), and his fastball velocity of 90.3 mph is in the fourth percentile.
Truist Park is considered a hitter-friendly park, especially for home runs. Given the favorable matchup, let's bet on Albies to stay hot and hit a home run at +500 odds on FanDuel.
🚀 Mets vs. Braves same-game parlay
For this Mets vs. Braves SGP, we're backing Atlanta's top two hitters for a plus-odds wager. Albies has logged one hit in three of his last four starts. Olson snapped a two-game slump with a pair of homers on Friday night.
💵 Mets vs. Braves SGP picks
- Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 Hits (-210)
- Matt Olson Over 0.5 Hits (-210)
Best odds: +118 via FanDuel (1u -> 1.18u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-39-3 | -12.32 units ❌ | -28.2% ❌ |
| Game picks | 3-8-2 | -6.47 units ❌ | -42.08% ❌ |
| Player props | 6-23-1 | -4.56 units ❌ | -24.0% ❌ |
| Parlays | 5-8 | -1.30 units ❌ | -13.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Braves: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
My bankroll features 3.85 total units across four bets in tonight's Mets vs. Braves game. I'm dropping 1.22 units on Under 8.5, with 1.38 units to win one unit on Chris Sale to finish with fewer than eight strikeouts.
A quarter-unit sprinkle on Albies to hit a home run at +500 nets over a full unit. Then we're staying on Albies and pairing him with Olson for a full unit on a 1+ hits parlay at +118 odds.
📊 Live Mets vs. Braves odds
The Braves have become slightly longer in the moneyline market since opening at -182, sliding down to -175. The run total has climbed from 7.5 to either 8.0 or 8.5 at the best MLB betting sites.
Public action is heavily on the Braves' moneyline at 87%, including 76% of run line bets. The total is a bit less lopsided, with 61% of public bets on over 8.0.
📈 Mets vs. Braves betting trends
| Mets | Statistic | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| 36-52 | W-L record | 51-35 |
| 36-52 | Run line record | 46-40 |
| 39-44-5 | O/U record | 39-41-6 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 4.13 | Team ERA | 3.47 |
| .230 | Team batting avg. | .246 |
| .672 | OPS | .715 |
🚑 Mets vs. Braves injuries
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Braves
- Date: Saturday, July 4
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta, Ga.)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Sean Manaea (1-3, 4.71 ERA)
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (8-6, 2.10 ERA)
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