⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, June 4

Thursday’s nine-game MLB slate features several elite starting pitchers, including Philadelphia Phillies righty Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has finished second in the Cy Young Award voting twice and serves as the backbone of one of my best NRFI bets today.

My only YRFI wager (Yes Run First Inning, meaning at least one of the two teams will score before the second inning begins) comes from a day game in the Bronx, even with the unknown of New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge's status. Elsewhere, I expect low-scoring affairs early in the interleague matchup between the PIttsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros, as well as an NL West rivalry.

⚾ Best NRFI bets today: June 4

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.69 units

💰 Best NRFI bet today

Padres vs. Phillies (1:05 p.m. ET)

• Lucas Giolito (4.97 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.27 ERA)
• NRFI records: Padres (39-21) vs. Phillies (30-31)

One of the crazier stats regarding Zack Wheeler is that he led the league with a 0.955 WHIP in 2024, but is on pace to improve upon that staggering number for the second consecutive season. He owns a microscopic 0.847 WHIP despite three of his seven starts coming against three of the top four offenses in the league in terms of runs scored.

I am also banking on Lucas Giolito to match zeroes early, especially since his has allowed a .208 batting average with 24 strikeouts in 72 combined at-bats from current Phillies hitters.

🔥 More NRFI picks today

Guardians vs. Yankees (1:35 p.m. ET)

• Slade Cecconi (5.25 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (3.32)
• YRFI records: Guardians (26-37) vs. Yankees (33-28)

This wager loses value if Aaron Judge, who is 2-for-2 with a home run in a small sample size against Slade Cecconi, is again out of the lineup. But Cody Bellinger has also taken Cecconi deep once in three at-bats, and the righty’s 5.25 ERA in the first inning this year is the worst of any of his first three.

Carlos Rodon also faces a pesky Guardians lineup that entered yesterday with the fourth-most runs scored against left-handed pitchers. Cleveland also had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws, and ranked seventh in wRC+, fourth in on-base percentage, and in the top eight in BABIP and wOBA in that split. 

Pirates vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)

• Jared Jones (10.38 ERA) vs. Kai-Wei Teng (2.57 ERA)
• NRFI records: Pirates (30-32) vs. Astros (25-38)

Jared Jones understandably looked rusty in his first start since 2024, allowing two home runs and five runs total over 4 1/3 innings. But he was on his way to a perfect first inning before Kody Clemens tagged him for a solo home run as the third batter. One positive overall is that he induced a 19.5% swinging strike rate and a 21.4% four-seam swinging strike rate, nearly doubling his swinging strike rate on that pitch compared to his last healthy season.

Conversely, Kai-Wei Teng has a solid 1.095 WHIP this season, and has only allowed two earned runs in the first inning in just one of his five starts this year.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

• Justin Wrobleski (2.87 ERA) vs. Ryne Nelson (4.82 ERA)
• NRFI records: Dodgers (29-32) vs. Diamondbacks (24-38)

Ryne Nelson is one of two qualified starting pitchers who have a HR/9 rate greater than 2.0 this season. But he also has allowed just three home runs in 98 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters, while limiting them to a .194/.268/.353 slash line. That includes holding Shohei Ohtani at the top of the order to two hits in 15 at-bats (.454 OPS) and Will Smith to two hits in 12 at-bats (.481 OPS).

Meanwhile, Justin Wrobleski has been a mixed bag with two outings of five and seven earned runs in his last four starts, and two other quality starts mixed in. But even in the two poor starts, he escaped the first inning without a run once.

🚀 Best NRFI parlay today

With only nine games on Thursday's MLB slate, it didn't seem feasible to back four NRFI plays across nearly half of the day's games. Therefore, I am following the trend in the Guardians-Yankees matchup that the YRFI has cashed in two straight Rodon starts. But I am also siding with Wheeler's and Nelson's success against today's opponent as the strongest reasons for two of the other legs of this NRFI parlay. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting NRFI picks today (June 4)

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

With my four MLB NRFI/YRFI plays, I am striking a balance between positive trends like the successes that Wheeler and Nelson have had against today's opposing lineups, while expecting continued success from other pitchers who add value to their NRFI plays, like Teng. There is risk involving a NRFI play with Wrobleski on the bump given his up-and-down starts of late, but the NRFI has cashed in seven straight Nelson starts.

❓ NRFI betting FAQ

What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?

NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).

What does YRFI mean?

YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.

What should I look for when betting NRFIs?

Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.